Finance news. My opinion.

As the Missouri Gaming Commission sets out to award the state’s precious 13th casino license, it faces a dizzying array of options. Cities and companies will argue that they are the best choice. External circumstances will influence who fits where. It’s a high-stakes decision, one the state can’t afford to get wrong. The right choice will be the perfect mix of location, operator and conditions.

Here’s a cheat sheet for what is on the table.

The players

Isle of Capri Corp. — The Creve Coeur-based company has three Missouri casinos but none in St. Louis. It has tried to buy or build one several times but lost out, most recently to Pinnacle. Now it is a logical candidate to try again.

Penn National Gaming — This Pennsylvania-based operator got a foothold in Missouri and the Metro East when it bought Argosy Gaming in 2005. Now it’s flush with cash and growing fast. But with projects under way in Maryland, Ohio and Kansas, is Penn’s dance card full?

Pinnacle — True, they just lost the license. But they could win it back. A third new casino here would give them a strong hand in St. Louis. But empire-builder Dan Lee is gone. And some say Pinnacle’s growth plans left with him.

Ameristar/Harrah’s/Herbst — It’s easier to expand in a state where you already have a license, and all three of these companies are in Missouri now. But Herbst Gaming is in bankruptcy court. Harrah’s Entertainment is slashing costs. Ameristar is stable, and it owns two of the biggest casinos in Missouri. Might it like a third?

A wild card — Countless other casino companies aren’t in Missouri right now, from big-time Vegas outfits such as MGM Mirage and Wynn Resorts to tiny rural operators such as Iowa’s Wild Rose. They would need to build relationships and clear a few more hurdles than their in-state competitors.

The LOCATIONS

Branson — With 8 million visitors a year, Branson could be a gambling gold mine. But state law allows casinos on only the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. Voters shot down a 2005 bid to change that. Don’t be shocked if that issue comes up again.

North St. Louis County — The north county riverfront has long been eyed for a new casino, and a group of investors has zoning approval to put one near the Columbia River Bottoms. To win a license, they would need to overcome loud environmental opposition.

Sugar Creek — A casino project in this town east of Kansas City was moving forward with haste until early 2008, when the Gaming Commission froze licenses ahead of Proposition A. That shelved Sugar Creek. But it could be back in the hunt now.

Cape Girardeau — A pair of businessmen have been pushing a casino in downtown Cape for years, and they quickly re-declared their interest this week. If the Gaming Commission wants to open a new outstate market, this would seem a logical choice.

St. Louis city — The biggest loser in l’affaire d’President is probably St. Louis City Hall. They had two casinos pumping out tax revenue. Now they have one. But there’s plenty of developable riverfront, and prime spots downtown and at the Chain of Rocks Bridge.

The hurdles

Saturation — Does the St. Louis region need seven casinos? Is there room for more in Kansas City? Companies and regulators will make these calculations in months to come and decide whether to place their chips in a current Missouri market or open a new one.

Credit markets — A good casino isn’t cheap. Pinnacle Entertainment spent almost $900 million on its two new facilities in St. Louis. That money gets borrowed. And right now, few people are lending, so a strong balance sheet is a real ace in the hole.

Local support — Regulators won’t force a casino into a place that doesn’t want one. Religious groups in southeastern and southwestern Missouri and environmentalists in north county will make themselves heard and could derail a project even if the numbers make sense.

Regulatory hurdles — The Gaming Commission is the ultimate decider of who gets this license, and they will make every candidate jump. Problems in other states, past troubles in Missouri, any hint of a connection to anything the commission doesn’t like could sink any proposal.

Demand — What Missouri hopes to get out of this license may not match what gambling companies want to build here. The industry’s big boys may rather use their resources making a big splash in a new market than building the 13th casino in a mature one.

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