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India's inflation unexpectedly slowed to a five-month low, giving the central bank room to reduce borrowing costs to shore up a slowing economy. Bonds rose.

Wholesale prices rose 8.9 percent in the week to Nov. 8 from a year earlier after gaining 8.98 percent in the previous week, the commerce ministry said in New Delhi today. That was less than the median forecast of 9 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 13 economists. The inflation rate has dropped from a 16-year high of 12.91 percent in the week to Aug. 2.

The Reserve Bank of India has scope to cut borrowing costs further as inflation approaches a level “we can live with,'' Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in a Nov. 18 interview. Growth in India's $1.2 trillion economy is weakening as a simultaneous recession in the U.S., Europe and Japan crimp demand for the nation's exports.

“The slowdown in inflation gives a great deal of comfort to the Reserve Bank to move ahead in cutting interest rates and to give a push to the growth momentum,'' said Shubhada Rao, an economist at YES Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “There is a clear shift in focus.''

Bonds extended gains after the inflation report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 7.23 percent, the lowest since January 2006, from 7.25 percent earlier. The price rose 1.3 per 100 rupee face amount to 106.92.

`Constant Vigil'

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Nov. 17 reviewed India's “liquidity situation'' in a meeting attended by central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao and “advised him to keep a very close and constant vigil over the situation and act as appropriate,'' Chidabmaram said cash advance in one hour.

The central bank has cut its benchmark lending rate twice in the past month, lowering it to 7.5 percent from a seven-year high of 9 percent. It also pared the amount lenders must set aside as reserves to cover deposits by 3.5 percentage points in a month, freeing up as much as 1.4 trillion rupees ($29.5 billion) in cash to ease lending.

The wholesale price index fell in the week to Nov. 8 because of a decline in the prices of fuel products such as jet fuel, furnace oil and naphtha. The oil index fell after Indian oil companies including Indian Oil Corp., the nation's largest refiner, cut the price of jet fuel by 4 percent.

The index of manufactured products that includes cooking oil and steel products, with a 63.7 percent weighting in the inflation basket, dropped to about 1 percent in the week, today's report showed.

Declining oil and commodity prices are cooling inflation across Asia, providing policy makers with scope to reduce borrowing costs to stimulate growth. Crude oil have fallen by 64 percent after climbing above $147 a barrel for the first time in July, while corn and wheat prices are also down by more than half from records reached earlier this year.

Today's inflation rate may be revised in two months, after the government receives additional price data. The commerce ministry increased the inflation rate for the week ended Sept. 13 to 12.42 percent from 12.14 percent.

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Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said policy makers are prepared to reduce interest rates as low as needed to prevent a recession from fueling deflationary pressures.

Asked whether he would take rates to zero, King said today policy makers “are prepared to cut bank rate to whatever level is necessary'' to make sure inflation hits the central bank's target. The Bank of England's forecasts, published today, said inflation may slow “well below'' their 2 percent goal in 2009.

The pound dropped to a record low against the euro after King today forecast a deepening recession. The bank has already trimmed the benchmark rate twice in the last month, reducing it by 1 1/2 percentage points last week to a five-decade low of 3 percent.

The downturn has worsened in the past month, reports show. Unemployment rose at the fastest pace in 16 years in October, house prices are falling the most in a quarter century and manufacturing is in its worst recession since the early 1980s. Until last week, the central bank's benchmark was the highest among the Group of Seven nations.

“Today's inflation report is a courageous acknowledgment that they are definitely behind the curve and quick action is definitely needed,'' said Chiara Corsa, an economist at UniCredit MIB. “Risks of a deflation scenario loom at the horizon.''

Pound Decline

The pound dropped to 82.38 pence per euro, extending its decline this year to 10 percent. Against the dollar, it dropped to the lowest since August 2002, falling to $1.5201 and has lost a quarter of its value since January.

The deterioration in the U.K. currency can be “a helpful part of the rebalancing, provided it doesn't affect our ability to meet the inflation target,'' King said. The bank has “no wish to see it fall very sharply.''

The Bank of England's key rate is now the second-highest among the Group of Seven nations. The Federal Reserve last month lowered its main rate to 1 percent, matching the lowest in a half century, and this month the European Central Bank cut its benchmark by a half point to 3.25 percent.

The Bank of England's forecasts show the U.K. economy will contract through 2009 and inflation will slow below the government's 1 percent minimum unless it cuts rates further short term cash loan.

Deflation Concern

Slowing growth and falling commodity prices are sparking concerns that inflation could give way to deflationary pressures. U.K. manufacturers' raw material costs and output prices fell at the fastest pace in 22 years in October, the Office for National Statistics said Nov. 10.

The central bank's forecasts, presented as fan charts, show deflation has slipped into the range of possible outcomes over the next three years and King conceded there's a “risk'' that consumer prices will start to fall. The bank's central forecast is still for an inflation rate just over 1 percent, based on market interest rate expectations.

The Bank of England tries to hit a central inflation target of 2 percent and is obliged to keep it within a range of 1 to 3 percent.

Today's report prompted some banks to lower forecasts for the benchmark U.K. interest rate. Barclays Capital and BNP Paribas forecast a 1 percentage-point reduction at the December decision, compared with an earlier prediction for a half-point cut.

King, fielding criticism that he underestimated the risks facing the economy, said “the world has changed'' since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.

“We have seen the biggest banking crisis since the outbreak for the First World War and arguably even bigger than that,'' he said. The forecast revisions are the largest the Bank of England has made since gaining rate-setting authority in 1997.

In a television interview pooled among broadcasters, King said that while the U.K. faces “unprecedented times,'' the economy may improve as soon as next year.

“I think 2009 will be a difficult year but I would hope that by the end of that we would start to see clear signs of improvement,'' he said.

“When the facts change, then we'll change bank rate,'' King said. “That's what we've done, and we're ready to do it again.''

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China, the biggest contributor to world growth, unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to sustain its economy, spurring gains in stocks, metals and oil.

China's cabinet pledged “fast and heavy-handed investment'' in housing and infrastructure through 2010 and a “relatively loose'' monetary policy, according to a State Council statement yesterday.

Copper jumped more than 8 percent and Asian stocks rallied on optimism the package will limit the depth of a looming global recession and encourage coordinated efforts to revive growth. President Hu Jintao will join crisis talks with world leaders this weekend in Washington, where President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to pass stimulus measures.

“This plan is, by all measures, too large to be ignored,'' said Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. China may “help the rest of the world by creating more demand for foreign goods and services.''

China's CSI 300 Index of shares closed 7.4 percent higher, the biggest increase in seven weeks. Copper gained as much as 8.4 percent in London. Crude oil, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares, and some Asian currencies also climbed.

China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth last year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. The government didn't say how much spending was previously allocated and indicated some will be private investment.

`Diplomatic Initiative'

“If the Chinese use this as a diplomatic initiative, it could be an important step toward a more coordinated response,'' Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist of the IMF, said in Boston.

China's gross domestic product grew 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years, as export orders and industrial production waned and property slumped.

“Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,'' the State Council said in yesterday's statement. “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed,'' it said, adding that the central bank will pursue a “moderately loose'' monetary policy.

The central bank has already cut interest rates three times in two months, reducing the one-year lending rate to 6.66 percent, and Governor Zhou Xiaochuan flagged yesterday that more reductions may be on the way.

`Urgent' Action

Group of 20 nations, including China, are ready to act “urgently'' to tackle the global slump, finance ministers said after a weekend meeting in Sao Paulo Faxless pay advance.

China's extra spending may boost the nation's economic growth by 2 percentage points next year, said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Before yesterday's announcement, UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG forecast GDP would rise no more than 7.5 percent next year, the smallest increase in nearly two decades.

“There is still a risk that an increasingly market-driven economy corrects faster than the fiscal package can be implemented,'' said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “We need to see evidence in the coming months that the fiscal package is either spurring demand or bolstering sentiment.''

China's plan is the equivalent of about 80 percent of government spending last year.

The package earmarks 100 billion yuan of central- government spending this quarter for low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, roads, railways and airports. Investment by local governments and companies may boost that to 400 billion yuan, the State Council said.

Cutting Taxes

The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies' costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan.

Grain purchase prices and subsidies for farmers will be raised, along with allowances for low-income urban households. The government also said it had scrapped loan quotas, which limited lending by banks, to help small businesses.

China's move comes as central banks around the world slash interest rates to revive their economies.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China have all lowered rates in the past two weeks. Taiwan, which counts China as its largest trading partner, cut rates late yesterday for the fourth time in two months.

Chinese manufacturing contracted by the most since at least 2004 in October and export orders dropped to their lowest, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Home sales have plunged in major cities including Beijing and the stockpile of unsold new vehicles was at a four-year high in September.

“The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.

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The Swiss central bank is winning a tug-of-war with markets, giving it room to cut interest rates again as the economic growth outlook worsens.

The Swiss National Bank has pushed the three-month rate for borrowing francs in London, or Libor, closer to its target after flooding the financial system with cash. The Libor rate has dropped more than half a percentage point since hitting a seven- year high on Oct. 10 and is now just 10 basis points above the SNB's 2.5 percent goal.

“The fact that Libor is coming down shows they're gradually regaining control,'' said Jan Amrit Poser, chief economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. “The SNB is under considerable pressure to cut rates'' and may move as soon as tomorrow.

Swiss central bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth wants to revive an economy whose two main growth engines are faltering. The franc's surge to a record against the euro is hurting exports, which dropped for the first time in four years in September, and the financial crisis is pounding earnings at banks such as UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group.

With markets still in disarray, Roth is trying to convince investors the SNB's monetary tools still work.

That challenge was highlighted after Oct. 8 when the three- month rate kept rising even after the SNB joined other central banks in cutting rates. In response, the SNB loaned $54 billion to UBS to shore up confidence in the banking sector and started swap agreements with the European Central Bank to get francs to banks outside of Switzerland.

Early Move?

Now that the three-month rate is closer to the central bank's target, policy makers may move before their next scheduled meeting on Dec. 11, economists say. Poser says the SNB may cut if the ECB reduces its own benchmark tomorrow and Sylvain Broyer of Natixis says a rebound in the franc's exchange rate against the euro may also lead to a reduction.

Investors have increased bets the SNB will lower rates by the end of the year, futures trading shows. The implied rate on the 3-month Liffe contract expiring in December fell to 2.08 percent at 12:48 p.m. in Zurich from 2.55 percent Oct. 15.

“They certainly have more room to maneuver than they did two weeks ago,'' said Fabian Heller, an economist at Credit Suisse in Zurich. “The SNB has had to take a wide range of measures to regain control of their monetary policy instrument.''

Midpoint

Unlike the Federal Reserve, the Swiss central bank targets a three-month market rate that it says is more relevant to the real economy than the overnight rate favored by the Fed. The SNB announces a range for three-month interest rates at each decision along with a main target rate online pay day loans. At the moment, it's the midpoint of a 2 percent to 3 percent range.

Interbank rates took longer to fall in Switzerland than in the euro region after last month's coordinated central bank action. That was partly because of demand in eastern Europe, where banks have used franc-denominated loans to offer cheaper mortgages.

The three-month rate for francs was unchanged seven days after the Oct. 8 moves, compared with drops of more than 10 basis points for similar rates on dollars and euros. In response, the SNB started seven-day currency swaps with the ECB.

“It was important for them to satisfy Swiss franc liquidity needs outside their immediate borders,'' said Eoin O'Callaghan, an economist at BNP Paribas in London.

Swiss Recession

Central banks in Europe are gearing up for a second round of rates cuts after the U.S., China, Hong Kong, India and Japan lowered borrowing costs over the past week. The ECB will tomorrow cut its benchmark to 3.25 percent from 3.75 percent and the Bank of England will reduce its rate by the same margin, taking it to 4 percent, said economists in separate Bloomberg News surveys.

The Swiss economy will probably slip into recession next year, the University of Lausanne forecasts, dragged down by the banking industry. Gross domestic product will shrink 0.6 percent before growing 0.5 percent in 2010, the university's CREA economic institute said Oct. 29.

Financial services account for about 12 percent of GDP and have contributed about 22 percent to growth in recent years, said Bruno Parnisari, an economist at the government's Economy Ministry.

Franc Strength

A stronger franc is making Swiss products less competitive abroad just as a global economic slowdown hurts exports. Switzerland's manufacturing sector contracted for a second month in October, while the European Commission forecasts that the euro region, Switzerland's most important export market, is probably already in recession.

The franc has surged 4.8 percent against the euro since Oct. 1, rising to a record 1.4315 on Oct. 24. It was at 1.5053 at 12:41 p.m. in Zurich.

“Looking at the shake-out we're seeing in the export sector, things are really falling off the cliff,'' said Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Bank Julius Baer in Zurich. “For the SNB, the situation is clear. I see them cutting to 2 percent by the end of the year and then cutting again in March to kick start a turnaround.''

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About one of every three Valley residents are looking at buying a new car in the next year, and 10 percent of them may be looking at hybrids.

A WestGroup Research study found 33 percent of Valley residents might be inclined to buy cars during the next 12 months. About 14 percent said they’d be looking for new cars, with 19 percent looking for used vehicles.

Ten percent of the potential buyers said they would consider hybrids, while 6 percent stated interest in their alternative-fuel brethren, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, which are not on the market yet free credit report .com. Only 4 percent said they would consider buying sport-utility vehicles.

The WestGroup study was conducted of a sample of 429 adults. It has a margin of error of 5 percent.

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European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet urged banks to start lending again after policy makers put them on to the “the path'' of recovery by pumping record amounts of cash into money markets.

“I expect the banks to normalize their relationships, meaning that they start lending to each other and that they lend to their clients,'' Trichet said in an interview on French radio RTL late yesterday. The banking system is “on the path to normalization,'' he said.

The cost of borrowing dollars in London fell last week for the first week since July after the ECB offered lenders as many euros as they wanted and joined counterparts in promising unlimited dollars as well. Central bankers and governments have stepped up efforts to end the 14-month-old credit crunch that's threatening to tip the global economy into recession.

“We're facing a very important market correction which is lasting,'' Trichet said, declining to say the credit crunch is over. “We are facing a very serious systemic liquidity crisis.''

As well as offering unlimited amounts of dollars and euros to banks, the ECB this month cut interest rates for the first time since 2003 and loosened rules on the collateral it will accept from banks when making loans. European governments including those in France, Germany and Spain committed 1.3 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in lenders.

Still, in a sign the crisis continues to reverberate, the Netherlands yesterday put 10 billion euros into ING Groep NV after the biggest Dutch financial-services company said it expects its first quarterly loss.

Lehman Collapse

Trichet said policy makers are acting to give banks the ability to refinance and boost their capital after September's collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. prompted lenders to hoard cash. That sent the cost of credit surging, hurting the economy by choking off money to consumers and companies.

ECB council member George Provopoulos said the central bank “remains vigilant and will do what is needed'' to both reduce inflation and ensure stability in markets, according to an interview with To Vima newspaper published yesterday. Colleague Ewald Nowotny told Austrian state broadcaster ORF-TV that, while the crisis should be “under control'' by the middle of next year, the economy will suffer for longer.

Trichet criticized investors for creating the crisis by behaving with too much “short-termism,'' which he blamed for amplifying the rise and the decline of markets. He said that having mis-priced risk, financial markets should now be subjected to greater transparency and regulation to curb their volatility electronic check payday advance.

Review Financial System

“We said there was an underestimation of the risks and of the price to be paid for these risks,'' he said. The crisis “must force us to review the entire international financial system.''

ECB council member Erkki Liikanen told Finnish state broadcaster YLE TV1 yesterday that regulation will be strengthened across borders. “All national regulators of banks operating across borders must join forces,'' he said. “It will be a part of EU legislation and I'm sure it will even be agreed on a multinational level beyond that.''

While the ECB this month cut its benchmark rate by a half- point to 3.75 percent, with inflation still almost double its 2 percent limit, Trichet said its focus is “entirely oriented to ensure price stability.''

“We will always, at any moment, do what is necessary so that I can continue to say to our citizens `you can have confidence, you will have medium-term price stability','' Trichet said. Such a goal should lend confidence to financial markets as “there's now more than in the past the recognition of the fact that price stability'' helps expansion and hiring, he said.

`Important Slowdown'

The ECB president described his 15-nation euro-area economy as being in a “very, very important growth slowdown,'' driven by tighter credit and also by this year's record fuel and food costs. Nowotny predicted the growth rate next year “will be significantly below what we have in 2008.''

Such an outlook explains why investors expect the ECB to cut its benchmark rate to 3.25 percent by the end of the year, Eonia forward contracts show.

The ECB, which next releases economic forecasts in December, in September predicted growth of 1.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2009. With the crisis worsening, the International Monetary Fund this month said it expects the euro-area to grow 0.2 percent next year, the weakest since the single currency began trading in 1999, after 1.3 percent in 2008.

Trichet acknowledged his own central bank had taken on risk by boosting liquidity and accepting lower-rated securities for loans.

“We're taking risks and we've made decisions that increased our risks, because we were facing a systemic liquidity crisis of first importance,'' he said. The ECB is an “inspirer of confidence,'' Trichet said.

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Belgium and Luxembourg raced to find a buyer for troubled financial group Fortis (FOR.BR: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) before markets opened on Monday and an industry source said BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was negotiating for control.

In a second weekend of crisis talks, Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme told broadcasters on Sunday he hoped to keep the Belgian and Luxembourg operations of the group together after the Dutch nationalized most of Fortis’s Dutch units on Friday.

“There are contacts with private groups, several private groups. We are not going to decide in this situation with our backs to the wall,” he said. “The only thing certain is that we are going to send a clear and strong signal to the markets before they open tomorrow.

An industry source close to the situation confirmed reports in several Belgian media that BNP Paribas was negotiating to take up to 80 percent of Fortis banks in both countries, but said nothing had been agreed yet (fast cash).

Belgium and Luxembourg, which took 49 percent stakes in the Fortis banks in their countries last Sunday, would keep a 20 percent stake in each. BNP declined comment.

Luxembourg Budget Minister Luc Frieden told RTL television the governments were close to a solution for Fortis involving one of the Europe’s most solid banks.

“We are very close to an agreement for a clever combination of a strong state, taking responsibility in the bank, and one of the biggest international banking groups,” Frieden said.

He declined to name the group but said it would involve a public-private partnership in which the state would keep a veto right over strategic decisions. 

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House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank sought authority to oversee and audit Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion program to buy bad mortgage investments.

Frank, a Democrat from Massachusetts, proposed that the U.S. Comptroller General “commence ongoing oversight of the activities and performance'' of the plan, according to legislative language presented to Treasury officials today and obtained by Bloomberg News.

The Comptroller General, who serves as director of the Government Accountability Office, and other GAO officials would have access to financial records, have audit powers and would report findings to Congress, under Frank's measures. The GAO is Congress' financial watchdog.

Frank also recommended limits on executive compensation of companies participating in the debt purchase plan, called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or “TARP.'' Frank's additions to Paulson's request yesterday urged the Treasury to broaden efforts to help homeowners in danger of foreclosure.

The Comptroller General's oversight will include assessing how well the program is meeting other goals Frank set out, including foreclosure prevention, consumer protection and stabilization of the financial system, according to the document.

Unchecked Power

Paulson asked Congress for unfettered authority to buy devalued mortgage-related securities from investment firms in an effort to keep the financial system from coming to a standstill. The proposal would prevent courts from reviewing the Treasury's actions while raising the nation's debt ceiling.

“We cannot just turn over $700 billion in taxpayer money and not insist that that taxpayer is going to be protected in this,'' Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd told reporters today after a conference call with Senate Democratic leaders creditscore.

The comptroller will submit reports of findings at least every 60 days to the House Financial Services Committee, the Senate Banking Committee and the Treasury Department Inspector General on the activities and performance of the program, according to the draft language.

The program will issue audited financial statements annually to the public and Congress, and the GAO will audit the statements.

CEO Compensation

Companies seeking to sell assets through the program must meet “appropriate standards'' for executive pay and shareholder disclosure, Frank proposed. These include limits on pay to exclude incentives for executives to take risks that are “inappropriate or excessive.''

The Treasury facility would be required to help homeowners avert foreclosures on mortgages, mortgage-backed securities and other assets it acquires that are secured by residential real estate. This includes using its authority as an investor to urge the companies that service the underlying loans to take advantage of a new Federal Housing Administration program.

The FHA program, created under a foreclosure-prevention law Congress enacted in July, is aimed at insuring up to $300 billion in refinanced 30-year fixed-rate loans for about 400,000 borrowers after loan holders agree to forgive some of the balance to help struggling homeowners.

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The good news for recent college graduates is that, despite the slumping economy, there are still several industries that are hiring young graduates at a brisk pace, according to a new study by MonsterTrak, the student division of Monster Worldwide Inc.

The top five industries for entry-level workers are sales and business development, which accounts for almost a quarter of all postings for entry-level workers and includes jobs in account management, real estate and advertising; accounting and finance; training and instruction; information technology and software development; and medical and health pay day advance.

Maynard, Mass.-based Monster (Nasdaq: MNST) also found that there was a 200 percent increase in entry-level postings related to the health care and medical fields.

Also, white collar entry-level jobs in sales and business development, as well as accounting and finance, still account for a large percentage of entry-level postings.

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Novell Inc. and Microsoft Corp. announced Thursday that it has developed technology that allows businesses to run Waltham, Mass.-based Novell’s open-source operating system on Microsoft servers.

The product is the first that allows companies to run a mixed Windows/Linux IT environment seamlessly, as the operating systems were designed to work, or interoperate, with each other cash till payday.

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Novell’s (Nasdaq: NOVL) interoperability lab in Cambridge will test and validate the technology, which will be supported by original equipment manufacturers like Dell Inc.

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