Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will probably unveil his first stimulus package today amid growing signs that the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum.
Hatoyama, who took office in September pledging to transform the economy by emphasizing quality of life over growth, is grappling with a slide in prices and a surging yen. His approval ratings have slumped, hurting the Democratic Party of Japan’s momentum ahead of upper house elections in July 2010.
He may propose spending of as much as 4 trillion yen ($46 billion) in this year’s extra budget, Finance Ministry officials familiar with the matter said. The package would come three days after the Bank of Japan offered to pump 10 trillion yen ($113 billion) into the banking system, accommodating government calls for it to do more to fight declining prices.
“Right now, the biggest threat for the economy is the strengthening yen, while deflation also poses a very severe risk,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, senior economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “The government is mindful of next year’s election and will want to spur employment because that’s what matters to voters the most.”
The yen climbed to 84.83 against the dollar on Nov. 27, the highest since 1995, and has gained more than 5 percent in the past three months. It traded at 88.10 as of 1:18 p.m. in Tokyo from 88.26 late yesterday. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.3 percent and has lost 3.1 percent since Hatoyama took power on Sept. 16.
Workers, Environment
The stimulus plan is about “95 percent complete,” Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan said at a news conference in Tokyo today. The package is likely to focus on helping small and medium-sized businesses, employment aid, and incentives to buy environment-friendly goods.
Most of the funding for spending will probably come from the 2.7 trillion yen frozen from the previous administration’s extra budget. The remainder will be tapped from reserves in so- called special accounts, or money set aside and used at the discretion of bureaucrats, Jiji Press reported this week, citing unidentified ruling party officials.
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said this week that funding for the package wouldn’t come from bond sales, assuring investors that the measures won’t exacerbate a public debt burden that’s the largest in the industrialized world.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell to 1.19 percent on Dec. 1, the lowest since January. It was unchanged at 1.27 percent today.
Support for Policies
While Hatoyama’s popularity has slipped, it remains high enough to win support for his policies, and he benefits from voter disgust with the way the Liberal Democratic Party managed the economy before its ouster in August, said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo payday loan.
“People are well aware that the DPJ was handed the poisoned chalice of an imploding economy and the mother of all fiscal messes,” Kingston said. “The shifting of stimulus spending away from roads and bridges to nowhere to social welfare spending, environmentally friendly products and child subsidies, plays very well here.”
Hatoyama’s approval ratings fell five percentage points from the previous month to 68 percent, according to a Nov. 30 survey by Nikkei Inc. and TV Tokyo Corp. The poll didn’t provide a margin of error.
Slower Growth
Gross domestic product expanded for a second quarter in the three months ended Sept. 30 after four quarters of contraction. Economists say the government will revise down last quarter’s growth from an annual 4.8 percent pace after a report yesterday showed companies cut spending a record 25.7 percent in the period.
Other figures this week showed the expansion may be weakening. Industrial production advanced at the slowest pace in eight months in October, and wages slid for a 17th month, extending their longest losing streak in six years.
Japan’s economy will probably shrink 5.4 percent this year, more than a 4.2 percent contraction in the euro area and a 2.7 percent drop in the U.S., the International Monetary Fund forecast in October.
Japanese policy makers are adding stimulus programs just their counterparts around the world consider how to withdraw them as the global economy recovers.
The Bank of Japan’s lending program will offer three-month loans at 0.1 percent interest. In a meeting with central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa two days ago, Hatoyama applauded the move and refrained from pushing for further monetary easing.
Revive Demand
Economist Akiyoshi Takumori says those measures won’t spur growth unless the government does more to revive demand.
“There needs to be support for the private sector,” said Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The BOJ’s new 10 trillion yen program will be useless unless companies want to invest in plant and equipment.”
Businesses and workers have called for government action. Fujio Mitarai, head of the country’s largest business lobby, said last week that Japan needs to take “urgent steps” against the yen’s advance. Nobuaki Koga, head of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, met Hatoyama on Dec. 2 to ask for “bold and aggressive” measures.
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