Finance news. My opinion.

The township of Huaxi in the Yangtze River Delta is a proud symbol of how Chinese communists embraced capitalism to lift 300 million people out of poverty during the past three decades.

Its leaders took a farm community with bamboo huts and ox carts in the 1970s and transformed it into an industrial and commercial powerhouse where today many of its 30,000 residents live in mansions and most have a car. Per-capita income of 80,000 yuan ($11,700) — almost four times the national average — allows Huaxi to claim it’s China’s richest village.

Huaxi is also emblematic of the country’s construction and real estate boom. Communist Party officials there are building one of the world’s 30 tallest buildings, a 2.5 billion yuan, 328-meter (1,076-foot) tower. The revolving restaurant atop the so-called New Village in the Sky offers sweeping views of paddy fields, fish ponds and orchards, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue.

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. “I think the Chinese economy will decelerate very substantially in 2010 and could even crash.”

Huaxi has an even more ambitious project coming up: a 6 billion yuan, 538-meter skyscraper that would today rank as the world’s second tallest. The only loftier building is the new Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

Dubai Times a Thousand

Such undertakings figured in warnings hedge fund manager Jim Chanos delivered in January that China is Dubai times a thousand. The costs of wasteful investments in empty offices and shopping malls and in underutilized infrastructure will weigh on China, Chanos, president of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., said in a speech at the London School of Economics. “We may find that that’s what pops the Chinese bubble sooner rather than later.”

China has defied the global recession of the past two years and remained the fastest-growing major economy. Gross domestic product soared 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The government has provided 4 trillion yuan in stimulus spending and encouraged banks to lend a record 9.59 trillion yuan last year, trying to bridge the gap until demand for exports rebounds or domestic consumption takes off.

Risk for Commodities

Last month, banks lent a further 1.39 trillion yuan — almost one-fifth of the target amount for the whole of 2010. Also in January, foreign direct investment climbed 7.8 percent to $8.13 billion. Retail sales during last week’s Lunar New Year holiday rose 17.2 percent from the same period in 2009, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

While China’s resilience has helped support the world economy, raising demand for energy and raw materials, the bursting of a bubble would have the opposite effect. Government efforts to wean the economy off its extraordinary support may roil markets.

In January, the central government ordered banks to curb lending, which put China’s stock market into reverse. In a sign, in part, of how dependent the world has become on China, stocks and currencies slumped in places such as Australia and Brazil that supply commodities to the People’s Republic. On Feb. 12, the eve of the one-week Lunar New Year holiday, China for the second time in a month ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 8 percent year-to-date, after gaining 80 percent in 2009.

Bidding Up Prices

“If the Chinese economy decelerates or crashes, what you have is a disastrous environment for industrial commodities,” said Faber, who oversees $300 million at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd.

The stimulus tap that Beijing turned on has flowed to projects such as its 2 trillion yuan high-speed-rail network. The 221 billion yuan Beijing-Shanghai line has surpassed the Three Gorges Dam as the single most expensive engineering project in Chinese history.

Some beneficiaries of the government efforts have plowed their loans into real estate and stocks. Property prices across 70 cities jumped 9.5 percent in January from a year earlier, according to government data.

Bridge of Strength

Instead of concentrating on their core businesses, giant state-owned enterprises, or SOEs, have bet on real estate, according to Zhang Xin, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst who’s chief executive officer of Soho China Ltd., the biggest property developer in Beijing’s central business district. “All the SOEs are bidding the prices up to the sky,” Zhang told China International Business, a magazine backed by China’s Ministry of Commerce, in December. That’s despite office vacancies in China’s capital being at record highs, according to Boston-based commercial real estate company Colliers International.

Chanos, a short-seller who was early to warn about Enron Corp., is one of a growing number of investors sounding the alarm. “Right now, the Chinese market is overheating,” George Soros said in a Jan. 28 interview.

Local-government officials have wasted stimulus funds by replacing infrastructure that was fine in the first place. State media complained in May 2009 that party chiefs in Jianyang, Sichuan province, decided to help boost the local economy by rebuilding a bridge that was in such good condition it had emerged unscathed a year earlier from the earthquake that killed 70,000 people. The so-called Bridge of Strength withstood a demolition crew that tried to blast it to pieces with dynamite, the official China Daily reported.

Real Estate or Soybeans?

Another example Chanos has cited is the city of Ordos, where party officials have built an entire new downtown on the windswept grasslands of Inner Mongolia, 25 kilometers (15 miles) outside the existing municipality of 1.5 million people.

Mark Mobius, meanwhile, is sticking with China. The executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management is encouraged that the government is pulling back some of its extraordinary economic support. “We see the government’s tightening of lending as a positive because it moderates the risk to some degree,” says Mobius, who oversees $34 billion. “This is a correction in an ongoing bull market.”

Chris Ruffle, who helps manage $19 billion for Edinburgh- based Martin Currie Ltd., also remains confident China will avoid a bust. “It’s not a highly leveraged situation,” says Ruffle, who works in Shanghai. “I was in Japan in the 1980s, and that was a bubble. Here in China, we are nowhere near that.”

Still, even Mobius says investors have to be wary. He got rid of an investment in a Chinese food company after discovering that it was using funds to buy apartments instead of to process soybeans.

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Honda announced it is expanding a previously announced recall to replace an airbag inflator in an additional 438,000 vehicles worldwide, including 379,000 in the United States.

In a statement posted on its Web site late Tuesday, Honda said the driver’s airbag inflators in these certain vehicles may expand with too much pressure, which can cause the inflator casing to break and could result in injury or death.

The expanded recall includes 2001 and 2002 Accord, Civic, Odyssey, CR-V, and selected 2002 Acura TL vehicles, the statement said. Honda said there have been 12 incidents related to the airbag inflator problem.

One Honda Pilot car and one Acura CL vehicle may also be affected, the spokesman said.

The original recall involving this issue was announced in November 2008 for 2001 and 2002 models of Accords and Civics as well as some 2002 model year Acura TL vehicles, a Honda spokesman told CNNMoney.com. It affected 3,940 U.S. vehicles, and 265 in Canada and Mexico.

Last summer, Honda added 510,150 cars to the recall worldwide, including 443,727 additional units in the United States payday loans in 1 hour.

The recall now affects a total of 952,118 vehicles, with more than 826,000 in the United States.

Although none of the reported problems occurred after July 2009, Honda said it was still expanding the recall because it could not be sure that the inflators in the aforementioned vehicles would work correctly.

Honda said it will notify affected customers by mail and phone with instructions on how to have their vehicles inspected and updated at an authorized dealer. The entire production of each of the models in question is not necessarily included in the recall.

Last month, Honda announced a separate recall of 646,000 2007 and 2008 Fit, City and Jazz models worldwide, after a fire hazard involving a power window switch resulted in a death in South Africa. 

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The Colorado Business Hall of Fame inducted eight business notables Thursday night during its annual induction banquet at the Hyatt Regency Denver at the Colorado Convention Center.

Junior Achievement-Rocky Mountain Inc. and the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce operated the event, and UMB Bank was the underwriter.

The Colorado Business Hall of Fame is in its 21st year, and has more than 100 members.

The 2010 laureates:

• The Gart Brothers: Nathan, Melvin, Jerry and Mickey Gart — In 1928, Nathan Gart founded Gart Bros. Sporting Goods Co. Melvin Gart joined the business in 1946 and oversaw all the advertising.

Nathan’s two sons, Jerry and Mickey, also worked for the company. Jerry Gart joined full time in 1953. He also opened the first branch store — a camera store at 16th Street and Court Place in downtown Denver — and built it into the largest photographic outlet in the Rocky Mountain West.

He added sporting goods to the upper level and took charge of the business. Eventually, that led to a highly successful chain of sporting goods stores, including the Sportscastle at 10th Avenue and Broadway.

The Garts also came up with “Sniagrab” — bargains spelled backward — and turned it into the largest ski sale in the world. It starts every year during Labor Day weekend.

• James B. Wallace — He’s one of four partners of Bownlie, Wallace, Armstrong and Bander Exploration. After 17 years working in the oil business in Texas, Wallace and his associates moved the company to Denver in 1970. Soon, Joe Bander joined the partnership.

Brownlie, Wallace, Armstrong and Bander was active in the Rockies in the 1970s. In 1980, they formed BWAB Inc. and Brownlie, Wallace, Armstrong and Bander Exploration.

Wallace served on the board of directors of Tom Brown Inc. until its sale to EnCana Oil and Gas USA Inc. He currently serves on the boards of Delta Petroleum, Ellora Energy and Savant Resources.

The Denver Petroleum Club named him Man of the Year in 1981.

In 1986, the Independent Petroleum Association of the Mountain States named him Wildcatter of the Year, in recognition of his 30 years in oil and gas exploration.

The Colorado Petroleum Association named him Man of the Year in 1991, and the Rocky Mountain Oil & Gas Hall of Fame inducted him in 2004. He’s also a member of the All-American Wildcatters group and the 25-Year Club of the Petroleum Industry.

• Henry Bosco — His father owned the Denver Hotel in Glenwood Springs, and Henry Bosco worked at a variety of jobs there as he grew up.

In 1956, the owner of the Hot Springs property, Frank E. Kistler, decided to sell the property and retire. Bosco and his father, Mike, were two of the 22 investors who bought the property.

Bosco helped lobby for the location of Interstate 70's Eisenhower/Edwin Johnson Memorial Tunnel.

He served as general manager of the hot springs property from 1976-89. Today, he serves as president and board chairman.

The Glenwood Chamber Resort Association named Bosco Citizen of the Year in 2006. The Glenwood Chamber of Commerce has established the Bosco Tourism Business of the Year award, an annual award in honor of the Bosco family.

• Merle Catherine Chambers — In 1980, she founded and served as CEO of Axem Resources LLC, an independent oil and gas production firm. Chambers ran it for 17 years. She also became board chairman of Clipper Exxpress Co., a family-owned transportation business based in Illinois. Her father, Jerry Chambers, started that company.

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The Pentagon will hold public meetings in late February regarding the F-35 jet fighter possibly coming to Luke Air Force Base in Glendale.

The Phoenix suburb of El Mirage says noise tests of the new fighter should be completed at Luke before those public Feb. 22-26 forums. The U.S. Defense Department has not yet said if and when such tests might be conducted.

El Mirage officials cite concerns that F-35 will be far nosier than the F-16, which now flies out of Luke on training missions. El Mirage Mayor Michele Kern asked U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., last year to bring F-35s to Luke for noise evaluations and the senator said he would.

“The noise needs to be studied,” said El Mirage spokeswoman Stacy Pearson.

Glendale spokesman Jerry McCoy said Glendale is open to the Luke tests, but they should be conducted in a uniform way and at the same time as at other sites being considered for F-35 training fast payday loans. Luke is the U.S. Air Force’s prime training base for F-16 pilots and Glendale is leading the effort to bring the F-35 training to Arizona.

The F-35 is succeeding the F-16 in the U.S. military arsenal.

Luke fighters now take off and land over El Mirage to the north of the base and Goodyear to the south.

McCoy also said Glendale is urging residents and base supporters to attend the DOD meetings.

Luke is competing with bases in Florida and New Mexico for F-35 training. Sites and times for the public forums on Luke have not yet been announced.

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BNP Paribas SA, the most accurate forecaster of the real’s world-beating rally last year, now says avoid Brazil’s currency in favor of the won and rupee as Asia’s central bankers prepare to raise interest rates.

South Korea and India’s currencies will climb 11 percent this year as Brazil’s rally ends, according to Sebastien Galy, the senior foreign-exchange strategist at France’s largest bank in New York. The real, Australia’s dollar and the South African rand were the best-performing of 16 major currencies in 2009, gaining more than 25 percent, on demand for their iron ore, coal and gold. The won rose 8.2 percent and the rupee 4.9 percent.

Bank Julius Baer & Co., Franklin Templeton and Investec Asset Management, which together manage $736 billion, say Asian policy makers will let their currencies strengthen as demand for exports recovers and the cost of imported food and fuel rises. The real weakened 0.1 percent since October 19, when Brazil began taxing foreign purchases of stocks and bonds to curb speculation. South African unions are pressing the government to weaken its currency.

“Much of the gains in commodity currencies already happened in 2009,” said Galy, 35, a former analyst for the International Monetary Fund. “As Asia tightens policy and finally lets its currencies appreciate, flows of capital should shift away from commodity currencies into Asia.”

Real Retreat

Even BNP’s forecast for the real to strengthen 16 percent to 2 per dollar, the most bullish among projections in a Bloomberg survey at the end of 2008, underestimated its rally. The currency closed 2009 at 1.7445, up 33 percent. BNP sees Brazil finishing this year at 1.75 to the dollar, in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts, as the exchange rate erodes the competitiveness of manufacturers.

The real gained 0.1 percent to 1.7178 per dollar at 8:19 a.m. in New York, from 1.7200 yesterday.

The won will be the 2010 winner, appreciating 7.8 percent to 1,080 and the rupee will climb 5.7 percent to 44, while the rand drops 6.4 percent to 7.90, separate surveys showed. BNP forecasts the won will rise to 1,050 and the rupee to 42. The Korean currency today gained 1.2 percent to 1,140.5, the biggest increase since July 14, and India’s touched a one-month high of 46.09.

Asian central banks “will be leaders in the hiking cycle,” said Werner Gey van Pittius, a London-based money manager who helps oversee about $60 billion in assets at Investec, which is speculating the real will decline. Its emerging-market bond fund returned 28 percent in 2009, beating the 22 percent gain in the JPMorgan Chase & Co. GBI-EM Global Diversified Unhedged index.

China Stimulus

Currencies of commodity producers rallied in 2009 as China led the global economic recovery by focusing its $586 billion two-year stimulus package on building roads and power plants.

Near-zero interest rates in the U.S. encouraged investors to borrow dollars and invest the money in markets with higher returns through so-called carry trades. Benchmark interest rates are 8.75 percent in Brazil and 7 percent in South Africa.

Swap contracts to exchange fixed-interest payments for floating rates indicate the market anticipates faster increases in Asian borrowing costs. A one-year agreement in India has risen to 1.76 percentage points more than the central bank’s benchmark, up from 0.95 point on June 30. The spread in Korea is 1 free business cards.65 percentage points, compared with 1.69 points in Brazil and 0.13 point in South Africa.

Rate Increases

The Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark rate one percentage point to 3 percent by end-2010, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. India’s central bank will increase its reverse repurchase rate to 4 percent from 3.25 percent, a separate poll showed.

Korean companies boosted capital spending 10 percent in the third quarter, helping win business as demand strengthened in China, just as the financial crisis forced Japanese factories to pare investment. The world’s most-populous nation is the biggest buyer of Korea’s exports, accounting for 18 percent of shipments last month.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has the most bearish 2009 forecast for the won, predicting a retreat to 1,300, and sees the rupee little changed at 46 as the dollar rallies and developed nations raise rates. New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said in October that a rebound in the dollar may force carry-trade investors to “rush to the exit.”

“As the U.S. economy recovers, rates there will rise and this will reduce the portfolio inflows into India,” said Sanjay Mathur, a Singapore-based economist at RBS, which is controlled by the U.K. government. “As India’s economy rebounds, imports will rise, softening the external position.”

Rand Overvalued

The rand is overvalued by 8 percent to 9 percent, which will “penalize the economy” in 2010, said Murat Toprak, a strategist in London at Societe Generale SA, France’s second- largest bank. South Africa’s central bank will cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 6.5 percent in the first quarter, he said.

SocGen’s 2009 forecast for the rand to gain 12 percent was the most accurate after Standard Bank Group Plc, Africa’s largest lender, in a Bloomberg survey of 22 analysts.

Investors will buy currencies “where they think rates will go up,” said Toprak. SocGen predicts the won will rise 11 percent in 2010 and the rupee 5.7 percent.

Asian nations will allow currency appreciation to reduce import costs and curb inflation, said Michael Hasenstab, who oversees the $2 billion Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund.

India’s wholesale food prices surged 20 percent in the week ended Dec. 19 from a year earlier, almost an 11-year high. Global costs jumped 7 percent in November from October, the most in about two years, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Food Costs

“Emerging markets will be among the first to face inflation due to rising commodities prices,” Hasenstab said. His fund returned 49 percent last year, beating the 28 percent advance in the benchmark JPMorgan EMBI Global Index.

Standard Chartered Plc, whose 2009 won forecast was the most accurate, predicts gains of 11 percent for both the Korean and Indian currencies this year.

“You’re going to see Asian governments probably tolerating some currency appreciation to prevent inflation from becoming a bigger problem,” said Neo Teng Hwee, head of portfolio management for Asia at Bank Julius Baer, which oversaw assets equivalent to about $140 billion at the end of June. His preferred picks include the rupee and China’s yuan.

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NEW YORK–General Motors Co. said Friday it will shut down Saab after talks to sell the brand to a Dutch carmaker collapsed, marking the third time this year that a deal by GM to sell an unwanted brand has fallen through.

GM said it had a small window of time to complete the deal and issues arose during the sale talks with Spyker Cars that could not be resolved. GM vice-president John Smith said: "Like everybody, we would have preferred a different outcome, and we all worked very hard for that different outcome and we’ve come up short."

Saab employs about 3,400 people worldwide, most of whom work at its main plant in Trollhatten, Sweden. The brand has 1,100 dealers, that General Motors said will continue to honour warranties as the brand winds down.

Chris Budd, owner of Budds’ Saturn Saab in Oakville – one of three Saab dealers in the GTA – said he feels as if he’s "lost a friend."

"I’ve had the Saab franchise longer than I’ve been married," he said, having carried the brand since 1977.

He blames the recession – not GM – for its demise.

Martin Olivera, service adviser at Saturn Saab Hummer on the Queensway, however, puts the blame squarely at GM’s feet.

"Truthfully, GM destroyed Saab," he said. "They made it into an American car, not a European car."

To enthusiasts, Saab became appreciated for quirks like placing the ignition lock between the front seats. It was the first to offer heated seating in 1971 easy to get unsecured personal loans.

GM bought a 50 per cent stake and management control of Saab for $600 million (U.S.) after it split from Swedish truck maker Scania in 1989. It bought full ownership in 2000 for $125 million. But even after the GM takeover, Saab remained closely associated with Sweden and its history of making safe, reliable cars.

GM never made money on the acquisition and industry analysts complained that under GM, Saab lost its uniqueness in the crowded luxury segment.

GM first sought a buyer for Saab in January as part of its restructuring, which included plans to cut the number of its brands to four from eight. It was previously in talks to sell Saab to a consortium led by the Swedish sports carmaker Koenigsegg Group AB, but it turned to Spyker after Koenigsegg withdrew from the talks in November.

GM’s failure to sell Saab is the third deal to sell an unwanted brand that has failed this year.

In September, dealership chain owner Roger Penske scrapped plans to buy Saturn after an agreement to get cars from France’s Renault fell through. GM is now phasing out Saturn.

GM’s board last month ended a deal to sell the European Opel brand to a group led by Canadian auto parts maker Magna International Inc., fearing that Opel was too heavily integrated into GM’s global operations and that GM technology would fall into the hands of competitors.

With files from Brendan Kennedy

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The European Central Bank will lend banks more money than economists forecast in its final tender of 12-month funds as some financial institutions try to lock in cash at a record low interest rate.

Banks bid for 96.9 billion euros ($141 billion), the Frankfurt-based ECB said today. Economists forecast that it would lend 75 billion euros, the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The cost of borrowing is indexed to the average of the ECB’s benchmark rate rather than fixed at 1 percent, as it was in the previous two tenders.

President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Dec. 10 that market conditions are “stable enough” to allow the ECB to withdraw some of the emergency measures introduced to fight the financial crisis. While the decision to index the rate on the tender will increase banks’ funding costs should policymakers raise the benchmark rate from 1 percent next year, the demand suggests the majority don’t expect an increase next year.

“Banks’ bidding behavior suggests the majority of them don’t expect a change in the policy rate during the duration of the tender,” said Klaus Baader, co-chief European economist at Societe Generale in London. The size of demand “will cause the liquidity situation in money markets to stay relaxed. Overnight and short-term money-market rates will remain very, very low.”

The Eonia overnight rate, the rate European banks charge each other for overnight loans, has declined to about 0.35 percent from 2.2 percent at the start of the year.

The euro was little changed after the announcement, trading at $1.4558 at 12:11 p.m. in Frankfurt, from $1.4538 yesterday.

Flagship Policy

The ECB has flooded markets with cash to fight Europe’s worst recession since World War II and revive lending. It lent 75.2 billion euros at its last 12-month tender in September and a record 442 billion euros in June cash till payday.

The ECB said that 224 banks bid in the latest tender, compared with 589 in September and 1,121 in June.

The 12-month loans formed one of the ECB’s flagship policies this year. The bank will also discontinue its six-month loans after March and only guarantee unlimited funding in its other refinancing operations until April 13.

‘Orderly Unwinding’

The euro-region economy’s emergence from the recession in the third quarter is helping the ECB deploy exit strategies. The central bank earlier this month forecast the economy to expand around 0.8 percent next year and 1.2 percent in 2011 after contracting around 4 percent in 2009.

Still, council members have signaled that they’re in no rush to step up efforts on withdrawing stimulus. Austria’s Ewald Nowotny said in an interview on Dec. 14 that tenders “that we didn’t mention will go on for the time being.” Germany’s Axel Weber said on Dec. 9 that the ECB will have a “process of orderly unwinding” and that the bank will reduce liquidity “slowly and step-by-step.”

The ECB began lending banks as much money as they wanted in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse last year, effectively assuming the role of the money market. In May this year, it announced it would extend the maximum maturity on its loans to 12 months.

“The ECB was more or less successful with its measures to avoid too strong a use of the 12-month tender,” said Juergen Michels, chief euro-region economist at Citigroup in London. “That will make the liquidity drain easier in 2010.”

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The developer of Tempe apartments designed and marketed for Arizona State University students says it has resolved a payment dispute and lawsuit with a construction contractor.

Chicago-based Campus Acquisitions says it has settled a $3 million lawsuit filed by contractor Nelson Phoenix LLC. Nelson claimed that Campus had not paid it for work done on the Vue on Apache.

The private development sits just east of ASU’s Tempe campus.

Campus Acquisitions Project Manager J.J. Smith said in a prepared statement the two companies resolved the $3 million dispute with mediators and “a new mutually agreeable payment amount" was established on a payment plan, Smith said payday loan.

The Vue on Apache, which opened August 2009, is one of the first privately developed and owned housing projects intended for ASU students, according to Smith’s statement.

Nelson filed a tax lien and lawsuit against Campus in late October saying Campus failed to make final payments on the private student housing next to ASU.

Calls to Nelson Phoenix LLC were not immediately returned.

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Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou began the week with his office protected by baton-wielding riot police taming student protests. Now, investors have him under siege as the country’s bonds tumble.

“Things are difficult, there’s no question about it,” he said in an interview yesterday in his office overlooking Syntagma Square, the hub of downtown Athens. “It’s a very hard fiscal situation. It’s not one that’s not reversible.”

Papaconstantinou, 48, has spent much of the past week reassuring investors and European leaders that Greece won’t default on its $350 billion in debt, its banks will keep access to European Central Bank financing and Prime Minister George Papandreou understands the worst fiscal crisis in 15 years.

Greek bonds plunged to their lowest in seven months on Dec. 9 and stocks slumped after Fitch Ratings cut Greece one step to BBB+, saying Papandreou’s two-month-old government isn’t doing enough to tame a deficit of 12.7 percent of output, the highest in the European Union. A day earlier, Standard & Poor’s put its A- rating on watch for downgrade.

The yield on Greece’s 2-year bond has surged 127 basis points to 3.15 percent this week, driving it above Turkey’s for the first time.

Situation ‘Severe’

“I spent two hours on the phone with the finance minister a couple of days ago, and he understands the position they’re in,” Fitch analyst Christopher Pryce said in an interview on Dec. 9. “I am not convinced that the cabinet, even the prime minister, understand just how severe the situation is.”

European officials added to pressure on Greece. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said today that “courageous” action is needed to close the budget gap. Economists pointed to Ireland’s decision to cut wages for public servants, compared with Greece’s 1.5 percent pay increase for most workers.

Papandreou appointed Papaconstantinou, who holds a doctorate from the London School of Economics, after he led the socialists to victory in October elections, winning a 10-seat majority in parliament. While the party won on a platform of higher wages that contrasted with Karamanlis’s pledges for a pay freeze, Papaconstantinou was within weeks forced to publish revised figures that cast doubt over Greece’s fiscal health.

Recession

Data showed Greece’s deficit this year would be more than twice the previous government’s forecasts and four times the EU limit. Other revisions showed that, rather than being one of the few European economies still growing amid the worst global slump since World War II, Greece had been in a recession for a year.

Papaconstantinou defends his government’s strategy to reduce the deficit by more than 3 percentage points of GDP to 9.1 percent next year.

“What exactly has changed in the last 40 days to justify a downgrade?” he said of the Fitch decision installment payday loans.

Greece needs to show that it will do more than rely on optimistic revenue forecasts and one-time measures to achieve those gains, economists say.

“Political pressure is mounting for the government to start taking bold action,” Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in London wrote in a note to investors.

About 75 percent of the current deficit reduction plan comes from raising revenue rather than cutting spending, Deutsche Bank AG estimates. Much of that will come from a crackdown on tax evasion, a chronic problem in Greece that a series of governments have pledged to combat.

New Plan

Now after just two months as finance minister and with the rating companies circling, Papaconstantinou must design a new plan due in January to convince EU leaders that Greece is serious about cutting the deficit and deserves an extension of the 2010 deadline to get its shortfall back within the EU limit.

“Rating agencies and EU institutions will probably want to see much more structural measures than currently announced to tackle the deficit, aimed at permanently and credibly increasing tax revenues and tackling age-related soaring public spending,” Giani said.

The government will announce further deficit measures next week and is committed to cutting spending by 10 percent next year to control the shortfall, Papandreou said in an interview with CNBC in Brussels before a summit of EU leaders today. “There will be some more changes that will make this sustainable so that it’s not a one-off deal,” he said.

Risk Overblown

Nevertheless, talk of a default may be overblown because the rest of the EU would probably help Greece, says the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“The question of the ratings is perhaps of less consequence than one should think,” said Secretary General Angel Gurria in an interview yesterday.

Papaconstantinou, married with two sons aged 14 and 11, says 10 years as an economist at the OECD will help him argue his case in Europe.

“You have to be able to have a presence around the Eurogroup table; you need to know what you’re talking about,” he said. “Especially because the issues have become infinitely more complicated than they have been in the past.

For now, Papaconstantinou says the force of the bond market isn’t disrupting his life as it might other people.

‘‘Actually I sleep quite well,’’ he said. ‘‘I think that’s one of the big advantages I have. I’m fairly level-headed in general and even though I do worry about things they don’t keep me up at night.”

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Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling this week may reverse a tax reduction for Britain’s richest households and will consider a levy on bankers’ bonuses in efforts to win over voters before next year’s election.

Darling said today that lowering the inheritance tax for the richest people is no longer a priority and didn’t dismiss an interviewer’s suggestion on BBC Television’s Sunday AM show that he is considering a one-time charge on bank bonuses. The chancellor is scheduled to publish a Pre-Budget Report with the tax plans on Dec. 9.

“I really can’t believe it would be the first priority of any government, at this time, to give a tax cut to the top 2 percent of estates in this country,” Darling said in the broadcast.

Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown are seeking to persuade voters that David Cameron’s Conservative Party, which is sticking to a similar inheritance tax plan, is siding with the rich at a time when the country is recovering from the worst economic crisis since World War II. That strategy has helped Brown’s Labour Party erode Cameron’s lead in opinion polls.

Darling said in 2007 that he would raise the inheritance tax threshold to 350,000 pounds ($578,000) from 325,000 pounds for single people and to 700,000 pounds from 650,000 for couples, starting April 2010. Cameron’s Conservatives want to abolish the tax for single people with estates below 1 million pounds and for couples with estates below 2 million pounds.

‘Lurch to Left’

“If the Labour Party wants to say don’t aspire to get on in life, then so be it,” George Osborne, the Conservative lawmaker who shadows Darling in Parliament, told the BBC program. “It’s part of their lurch to the left.”

Darling said he will not be “held to ransom” by banks threatening staff defections if their bonuses are curtailed, indicating he is considering plans to levy a one-time charge on bankers if they exploit loopholes on current bonus rules.

“We do have a veto over the package,” Darling said of government-controlled Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. “We are not going to be held to ransom by people who believe you can pay extremely large bonuses regardless of what’s going on.”

Osborne said he “wouldn’t rule out” such a charge if his party defeats Labour in the election, which has to take place before June.

An ICM Research poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed that the Conservatives are on course to obtain a majority of between 20 and 25 seats in the 646-seat House of Commons. A ComRes Ltd. survey Dec. 1 showed that the U.K. may be heading for a so- called hung Parliament, with Cameron leading Brown by 10 percentage points, down 3 points from October.

‘Party of Rich’

A YouGov Plc poll in today’s Sunday Times showed that more than half of the 2,000 people interviewed viewed the Conservatives as the party of the rich. Cameron said Brown had been “spiteful’ in his efforts to tell voters of his privileged upbringing and elite schooling.

Darling today stepped up the attack, saying Osborne’s plea to voters to endure tougher times isn’t consistent with tax cuts for the rich.

Darling said this week’s budget statement will spell out some detail on how he plans to implement his pledge to reduce the deficit by as much as half over four years. In April, the budget suggested the chancellor would have to find as much as 60 billion pounds to achieve this.

Darling has already announced tax increases that will account for about one-quarter of that amount, and has earmarked about 9 billion pounds by cutting waste in government departments, leaving him the challenge of finding a further 40 billion pounds by reducing government spending.

NHS Program

Darling told the BBC today that he will scrap a 12.4 billion-pound computer program for the National Health Service that is being developed mainly by iSoft Plc. Similar reductions, rather than staff cuts in schools and hospitals, would indicate “the direction of travel” in this week’s report, he said.

“The NHS had quite an expensive IT System and I don’t think we need to go ahead with it now,” he said.

Brown said yesterday in his weekly podcast that a plan to move more government services online would save about 400 million pounds a year.

Darling’s view is that the economy is too fragile to take more steps to repair the 175 billion-pound deficit this year, a Treasury official said this week. Darling will challenge the Labour government’s opponents to spell out their plans on what they plan to reduce, the official said.

Pound Rebounds

The pound snapped two weeks of declines against the euro last week as industry reports showed that U.K. services and manufacturing industries expanded in November, indicating that the recovery is taking hold.

Darling’s approach, contrasting with Conservative Party calls to make deeper and faster cuts, won the support of two groups in London today. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a London-based research group that counts the Treasury and the Bank of England as clients, said Darling should keep stimulating the economy during the next few months before reducing the deficit.

The British Chambers of Commerce said the government should refrain from cutting the fiscal deficit too quickly as the nation’s economic recovery faces “major risks,”

Darling will lower his forecast for the U.K. economy this year, saying the financial crisis has inflicted far deeper pain than he predicted in April, a government official said Nov. 27. Gross domestic product will fall 4.75 percent in 2009, compared with the 3.5 percent drop forecast seven months ago, the official said. Darling said today that growth in 2010 will be “moderate.”

Treasury officials said last week that Darling will scale back his estimate for the cost of bailing out Britain’s banks to no more than 10 billion pounds, from 50 billion pounds.

The reduction in the sum set aside in the government’s accounts to pay for losses will shave about 40 billion pounds off the Treasury’s debt, now about 792 billion pounds, the officials said.

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