Crocuses sprouting in front yards are just one indicator that spring has arrived early. Another, less welcome sign is rising prices at the pump, and the political rancor that accompanies an angry electorate in an election year.
Regular gasoline averaged $3.45 a gallon in St. Louis and surrounding Missouri suburbs early Thursday. That’s up 20 cents over the past month and 40 cents from the same time last year, according to the AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. In the Metro East, where taxes are higher, the average was $3.65.
Patrick DeHaan, a Chicago-based analyst for GasBuddy.com, a website that tracks gasoline prices, said retail prices had risen another nickel a gallon during the day on Thursday and could go as much as 15 cents higher by the end of the weekend.
DeHaan said wholesale prices in the Great Lakes region have soared by 61 cents in the past week, and the increase has yet to be fully reflected in retail prices.
While local prices are still far short of the records seen here last May, gasoline is the most expensive it’s ever been at this time of year. And prices typically rise in spring as people drive more and oil refiners drain inventories and switch to producing cleaner-burning summer gasoline.
The overwhelming reason for the recent jump is higher oil prices paid by refiners.
Oil futures rose $1.55 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $107.23 — the highest level since early May. Prices are up about $10 in just the past two weeks, mostly on fears of instability in Iran and the possibility it could affect oil shipments from the Middle East.
“The market has to discount the worst case outcome (in Iran) and the probability of that worst case outcome,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in Webster Groves.
By itself, a $10 increase in oil prices equates to a 25 cent a gallon jump in gasoline prices.
Refinery outages and closures on the coasts are also affecting Midwest gasoline prices, though to a lesser extent, analysts said.
The largest refinery in the state of Washington, with capacity to process 230,000 barrels of oil a day, remains idled following a fire on Friday. On the East Coast, two refineries near Philadelphia have shut down in recent months.
The loss of refining capacity on the coasts “does not affect out market directly, but it causes tighter markets in other parts of the country,” O’Grady said. And if the difference between gasoline prices in different regions of the country is great enough, it justifies the cost of transporting fuel and selling to those markets.
In past years, gasoline price increases were frequently blamed on rising fuel consumption and dwindling domestic oil production. But the opposite is true today.
The U.S. is pumping more oil than it has at anytime since 1994 and gasoline demand is at an 11-year low.
Nonetheless, motorists remain vulnerable to geopolitics and a volatile global energy markets that push up the price of crude oil.
Just a few years ago, the price of oil used to account for a little more than half of the cost of gasoline, with refining, distribution and marketing and taxes making up the rest. Today, oil represents 75 percent of the retail price, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Government forecasters predict nationwide gasoline prices will average $3.55 a gallon in 2012, or 2 cents a gallon more than last year. The current nationwide average is $3.61 a gallon.
The run-up in crude oil and gasoline prices has generated plenty of consumer angst and given rise to criticism of President Barack Obama and his administration’s energy policy — including the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada’s tar sands.
Thursday, Obama took on those critics, including Republican presidential candidates, during a speech in Miami, where he stopped to raise cash for his re-election bid.
“Only in politics do people greet bad news so enthusiastically. You pay more, and they’re licking their chops?” Obama asked rhetorically. “And you can bet that since it’s an election year, they’re already dusting off their three-point plans for $2 gas.”
Among the most vocal critics is Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., who last week introduced an amendment to give federal regulators more leeway to waive requirements for anti-pollution “boutique fuels.” The measure would also direct the government to study the effect such fuels have on gasoline markets.
Meanwhile, Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., urged the president to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to provide relief for consumers. U.S. presidents have ordered releases from the strategic reserve three times since 1991 and in each case lowered fuel prices, she said.
McClatchy News contributed to this report.
Source