Finance news. My opinion.

European economic confidence fell to a record low in February, banks tightened access to credit and German unemployment rose, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to step up its response to the crisis.

An index of euro-region executive and consumer sentiment dropped to 65.4 from 67.2, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Lending to euro area households and companies slowed the most in more than five years, European retail sales declined and German unemployment rose for a fourth month.

“Today’s data has dashed any hope of a tentative stabilization” in the economy, said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Any sense that the ECB may pause after a March rate cut can be thrown out the window. They will go very low and they will have to start embarking on additional measures.”

Europe’s deepening recession may prompt a rethink at the ECB, which has so far shown reluctance to follow the Federal Reserve and Bank of England and deploy new monetary policy measures. The downturn is also sparking concern about the fiscal health of some nations and the gap between German and Italy bond yields today widened to the most since 1997.

The International Monetary Fund already predicts the euro- region economy will contract 2 percent this year and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Feb 19 that the forecast may need to be cut.

The ECB argues that it needs to be careful not to cut rates too low and officials have struggled to agree on the best approach once conventional measures are run their course.

‘Lowest Limit?’

While the ECB has cut its benchmark rate by 225 basis points since October to 2 percent and President Jean-Claude Trichet has signaled it may reduce again next week, Germany’s Axel Weber says 1 percent is probably the “lowest limit.”

Trichet says no decision has yet been taken on whether the ECB will take steps such as creating money or buying government bonds. The Fed and Bank of England by contrast are already buying securities as part of measures to ease credit markets. The ECB next decides on rates on March 5 payday loans online.

Some ECB policy makers, including Austria’s Ewald Nowotny, are still counting on an economic recovery. He expects a revival “in the last quarter of 2009” and “positive if low” growth the following year. Executive Board member Juergen Stark forecasts a “stabilization” towards the end of this year as stimulus packages take effect.

Bank Aid

Europe’s governments have so far committed 1.2 trillion ($1.5 billion) in bank aid and about 200 billion euros in economic-stimulus packages, swelling budget deficits in some countries.

That in turn has stoked angst about some countries’ ability to meet their debt obligations as their fiscal situations deteriorate. Former Bundesbank President Karl Otto Poehl told Sky News in an interview broadcast today that smaller members of the euro region could default on their debt obligations.

The difference between German and Italian 10-year government bond yields widened to the most in almost 12 years today, with the spread increasing as much as four basis points to 161 basis points.

The euro-region economy contracted the most in at least 13 years in the fourth quarter, shrinking 1.5 percent, as companies scale back output and shed jobs.

German business confidence fell to the lowest in 26 years this month and BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, said today it will accelerate plant closures and eliminate at least 1,500 jobs. The number of Germans out of work rose 40,000 this month to 3.31 million, the Federal Labor Agency said today, pushing the jobless rate to 7.9 percent.

Concern about unemployment is in turn prompting consumers across Europe to keep their purses shut. European retail sales fell for a ninth month in February, the Bloomberg Retail PMI showed today.

Today’s data suggests that the first quarter “might not be that much better than the breathtaking deterioration that we saw in the fourth quarter,” said Nick Kounis, chief euro area economist at Fortis Bank NKL in Amsterdam.

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Bank of America is replacing some customers’ credit cards because of a data theft at a New Jersey card processing company. The bank won’t say how many cards it is replacing.

Last week, Heartland Bank in St. Louis also said it was replacing customer cards.

The data theft occurred at Heartland Payment Systems in New Jersey low fee payday loans. Heartland Bank says it is not affiliated with Heartland Payment Systems.

jgallagher@post-dispatch.com | 314-340-8390

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Clayco Inc. promoted Lance Cage to senior vice president of Clayco Realty Group. In his new position, Cage will manage all stages of real estate development projects.

Previously vice president of Clayco’s corporate business unit, Cage brings to the position more than 20 years’ experience.

Cage holds a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Dayton in Ohio, a bachelor’s in civil engineering from Washington University and a bachelor’s in liberal arts from Wheaton College in Wheaton, Ill.

He is a registered professional engineer and a LEED-accredited professional with the United States Green Building Council payday loan.

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China, the biggest contributor to world growth, unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to sustain its economy, spurring gains in stocks, metals and oil.

China's cabinet pledged “fast and heavy-handed investment'' in housing and infrastructure through 2010 and a “relatively loose'' monetary policy, according to a State Council statement yesterday.

Copper jumped more than 8 percent and Asian stocks rallied on optimism the package will limit the depth of a looming global recession and encourage coordinated efforts to revive growth. President Hu Jintao will join crisis talks with world leaders this weekend in Washington, where President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to pass stimulus measures.

“This plan is, by all measures, too large to be ignored,'' said Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. China may “help the rest of the world by creating more demand for foreign goods and services.''

China's CSI 300 Index of shares closed 7.4 percent higher, the biggest increase in seven weeks. Copper gained as much as 8.4 percent in London. Crude oil, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares, and some Asian currencies also climbed.

China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth last year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. The government didn't say how much spending was previously allocated and indicated some will be private investment.

`Diplomatic Initiative'

“If the Chinese use this as a diplomatic initiative, it could be an important step toward a more coordinated response,'' Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist of the IMF, said in Boston.

China's gross domestic product grew 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years, as export orders and industrial production waned and property slumped.

“Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,'' the State Council said in yesterday's statement. “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed,'' it said, adding that the central bank will pursue a “moderately loose'' monetary policy.

The central bank has already cut interest rates three times in two months, reducing the one-year lending rate to 6.66 percent, and Governor Zhou Xiaochuan flagged yesterday that more reductions may be on the way.

`Urgent' Action

Group of 20 nations, including China, are ready to act “urgently'' to tackle the global slump, finance ministers said after a weekend meeting in Sao Paulo Faxless pay advance.

China's extra spending may boost the nation's economic growth by 2 percentage points next year, said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Before yesterday's announcement, UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG forecast GDP would rise no more than 7.5 percent next year, the smallest increase in nearly two decades.

“There is still a risk that an increasingly market-driven economy corrects faster than the fiscal package can be implemented,'' said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “We need to see evidence in the coming months that the fiscal package is either spurring demand or bolstering sentiment.''

China's plan is the equivalent of about 80 percent of government spending last year.

The package earmarks 100 billion yuan of central- government spending this quarter for low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, roads, railways and airports. Investment by local governments and companies may boost that to 400 billion yuan, the State Council said.

Cutting Taxes

The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies' costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan.

Grain purchase prices and subsidies for farmers will be raised, along with allowances for low-income urban households. The government also said it had scrapped loan quotas, which limited lending by banks, to help small businesses.

China's move comes as central banks around the world slash interest rates to revive their economies.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China have all lowered rates in the past two weeks. Taiwan, which counts China as its largest trading partner, cut rates late yesterday for the fourth time in two months.

Chinese manufacturing contracted by the most since at least 2004 in October and export orders dropped to their lowest, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Home sales have plunged in major cities including Beijing and the stockpile of unsold new vehicles was at a four-year high in September.

“The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.

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Overnight money market stress eased in Europe on Thursday but lending rates remained above central bank targets, reflecting banks’ firmly entrenched aversion to counterparty risk.

Rates have remained elevated despite massive liquidity injections by central banks around the world as the ongoing crisis in the financial system has prompted banks to hoard cash and refuse to lend to each other.

The European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged as expected at 4.25 percent but some in the market expect the central bank to cut rates in the coming months to deal with economic weakness that could result from the banking crisis.

Interbank overnight dollar rates fell for a second day running in London, after a record surge earlier this week as quarter end funding pressure eased and the U.S. Senate passed a revamped $700 billion bank bailout plan.

Overnight dollar Libor rates fell more than a full point to 2.68125 percent from 3.79375 percent on Wednesday while euro overnight rates also eased.

Rates further out jumped, with benchmark three-month rates — which now cover the year-end period — fixed higher in dollars and euros.

Three-month dollar Libor rose to 5.31750 percent, their highest since January, up from 4.15000 percent on Wednesday payday loans online. The euro-zone equivalent for euros hit its highest since the launch of the single currency, at 5.31750 percent.

“The liquidity provisioning which central banks have made has effectively drawn a line under how bad things can get but not addressed underlying problems over the value of assets that are held by counterparties,” said Richard McGuire, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. 

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Central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin accepting assets denominated in foreign currencies as collateral to increase liquidity in the world's financial markets, the Nikkei newspaper said.

Six central banks including the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are discussing the plan, Nikkei reported today without saying where it got the information or naming the other two banks get a free credit report.

Central bankers struggled to restore confidence in markets last week as banks hoarded money on concern more financial companies will follow Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy.

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Jose Mauricio Rodriguez Montalvo rents a room from his sister to help her afford her basement flat in Madrid as mortgage costs soar.

“She's crying over the Euribor,'' the 12-month money- market rate used to set Spanish mortgages, Montalvo, 28, said in an interview. “We're just praying it won't keep going up.''

For homeowners in Spain and in Ireland, struggling to stay afloat amid the wreckage of a decade-long real-estate boom, those prayers are going unanswered. The European Central Bank yesterday increased its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent to fight inflation, pushing both economies a step closer to recession.

The two countries are particularly vulnerable to higher lending costs because their housing industries account for about 10 percent of their economies, twice the EU average. Montalvo's family has seen its monthly mortgage payment leap 50 percent to 2,080 euros since the ECB began raising rates in December 2005.

“They have been thrown to the wolves,'' said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $46 billion in bonds at Resolution Investment Management Ltd. in Glasgow, Scotland. `It's much easier to bring inflation lower if you're willing to have a recession in economies like Spain, Italy and Ireland.''

The Irish economy contracted for the first time in more than a decade in the first quarter. Growth in Spain was the slowest in 13 years in the period, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News see a 45 percent probability of a recession, or two consecutive quarterly contractions, within the next year.

Balancing Act

The ECB has more than doubled its key rate in less than two years under its mandate to control prices. Euro-region inflation accelerated to 4 percent last month, the fastest in 16 years, on soaring food and oil costs, even with growth slowing.

Trichet yesterday signaled further rate increases weren't imminent as he strikes a balance between taming inflation and not choking economic growth. Still, while he acknowledged some countries will be harder hit than others by the rate increase, he said the bank must serve the entire euro region just as the Federal Reserve sets policy for all 50 U.S. states.

“If you concentrate on California or Florida, it is not at all like Massachusetts or Alaska,'' he said in an interview with Ireland's RTE radio. “It is the same in our case and we have to make a judgment what is good for the full body of the 320 million people'' in the euro area.

Fraction of Germany

Spain and Ireland make up less than 15 percent of the region's economy and their economies together are about half the size of Germany's. Growth in Europe's biggest economy accelerated in the first quarter to the fastest pace in 12 years and manufacturing was still expanding in June. Spanish industry contracted by the most on record.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has called on the ECB to be “flexible'' in setting monetary policy payday advance online.

The interest rate increase is “more bad news,'' said Joan Burton, finance spokeswoman for Ireland's Labour Party. “Many families are now faced with the very real prospect of negative equity, which has serious economic and social consequences.''

The Euribor has risen almost 30 basis points since June 5 when Trichet first signaled higher rates. That made new mortgages more expensive and will make existing ones costlier as 98 percent of Spanish home loans and around 80 percent in Ireland are on a variable rate. The jump in costs has sapped demand for housing.

Housing Slump

Home starts in Spain plunged 70 percent in March from a year ago and dropped around 60 percent in Ireland. The slowdown prompted Dublin-based realtor Lisney to lower salaries by 10 percent for its 170 workers. The Irish unit of CB Richard Ellis plans to cut around a 10th of its workforce.

“Transactions have dried up,'' said Guy Hollis, managing director of CBRE in Ireland. “It's not going to last forever, but we have to be prudent.''

The building boom going bust is tarnishing a decade of gains. Ireland's economy has grown the most in the euro area since monetary union in 1999, while Spain created more than a third of new jobs in the region.

After years of “inappropriately low'' interest rates, Spain and Ireland are now feeling the “hangover,'' said Alan Ahearne, a lecturer at Ireland's National University and a former economist at the Fed.

Earnings Outlook

Irish banks including Allied Irish Banks Plc had their 2008 earnings estimates cut by Merrion Stockbrokers yesterday because of expectations for deteriorating credit quality.

The decade-long expansion does leave Spain and Ireland with resources to ease the pain of the slowdown. Zapatero's government will use a budget surplus of 2.2 percent of gross domestic product to finance 18 billion euros of measures to prevent defaults and aid unemployed construction workers.

Ireland, with the second-lowest government debt in the euro area after Luxembourg, will maintain a 184 billion-euro infrastructure investment plan.

That may not be enough to buffer the hard landing. The Spanish downturn destroyed 75,000 jobs in the first quarter when the unemployment rate jumped the most in three years to almost 10 percent. Ireland's jobless rate rose to a nine-year high of 5.7 percent in June, according to figures published today.

“Central banks are paid to cause a recession now and then,'' said Fortis Investments Chief Investment Officer William De Vijlder. “Maybe it's a shock to put it like that, but that's reality.''

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The state's largest business lobby has created a statewide alliance advocating for a property tax cap — something state legislators could not agree on before the end of their scheduled session.

The Business Council of New York State Inc., based in Albany, is backed by a group of businesses, taxpayer groups and other associations supporting Gov. David Paterson's proposed tax cap.

Paterson wants to cap annual property tax increases at 4 percent or 120 percent of the consumer price index, whichever is lower. A supermajority of a school district's voters can choose to override the limit.

Powerful unions, including the 600,000-member New York State United Teachers in Latham, have fiercely opposed that idea and campaigned against the cap in the waning days of the legislative session, which ended June 25. Paterson has repeatedly said he is willing to call special legislative sessions later this year to try to lower future budget deficits or pass key legislation like a property tax cap.

"I want to get to a point where we start to look at substance, more than anything else," Paterson said at a June 23 press conference 500 fast cash. He said he and state leaders would continue negotiations over the summer.

The cap was the key recommendation in a preliminary report from a state tax commission, issued in early June. A final report is due by the end of the year, one reason Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver cited as a reason why he wasn't willing to take action on any tax cap proposal.

The new tax cap support group has nearly 50 members from Buffalo to Long Island. The group's Web site is: www.taxcapnow.org.

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The Bank of Korea kept interest rates at the highest level in seven years, saying the risk of faster inflation outweighs concern that economic growth is slowing.

Governor Lee Seong Tae and his colleagues left the seven-day repurchase rate at 5 percent in Seoul today, as forecast by all 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. They last adjusted the benchmark in August with a quarter-point increase.

Surging oil and food prices are driving inflation above the comfort zones of central banks globally, replacing slowing economic growth as their primary concern. Easing the rising cost of living is a priority for President Lee Myung Bak, whose popularity has plunged since his government agreed to resume U.S. beef imports that protesters claim aren't safe from disease.

“President Lee has set tackling inflation as a top priority to win back public support,'' said Lee Sang Jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities Co. in Seoul. “The central bank will have to raise rates if inflationary expectations spread.''

The yield on the five-year government bond fell 2 basis points to 5.84 percent at 12:53 p.m. in Seoul after Governor Lee spoke at a press conference, cooling speculation that the bank may increase interest rates. It earlier rose as much as 8 basis points.

Governor Lee said economic growth would probably slow gradually and inflation would accelerate and added that monetary policy depends on whether exports remain strong, domestic demand cools and inflation quickens.

`Cut or Increase'

“The rate policy is always open for a rate cut or increase as we manage it every month by looking into the economy and inflation,'' the governor said. “Inflation may return to the normal level after it's absorbed in the economy.''

The five year bond yield rose as high as 5.94 percent after the bank distributed a Korean-language statement immediately following the decision that said: “The upward risk to inflation is bigger than the downside risk to growth.''

The statement also said: “It's necessary to manage economic policy to keep inflation expectations from spreading.''

“There was no clear statement from the governor that could be taken to mean that the central bank will raise rates anytime soon,'' said Seo Chul Soo, a fixed-income strategist with Daewoo Securities Co faxless payday advance. in Seoul. “His comments were less hawkish than the market feared.''

The won traded at 1,030.35 versus the dollar from 1,030.10 late yesterday.

Oil Prices

“Difficulties are spreading in the overall economy,'' Finance Minister Kang Man Soo said today, citing the increase in oil prices. “Because the oil-price rise continues, I think difficulties could increase in coming months.''

Central banks in India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan have all boosted borrowing costs in the past month. China this week ordered lenders to set aside more reserves.

Soaring fuel and food costs drove consumer prices to a seven-year high of 4.9 percent in May, exceeding the central bank's target range for a seventh month. The bank aims to keep inflation between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, on average, for the three years to 2009.

The drop in the won against the U.S. dollar this year is another factor that is pushing inflation higher by increasing the cost of imports.

At the same time, a weaker won is helping Asia's fourth- largest economy withstand a slowdown in the U.S. and Europe by making Samsung Electronics Co.'s mobile phones and Hyundai Motor Co.'s cars cheaper overseas.

Economic Growth

The focus of policy makers may shift back to supporting growth should oil prices fall and inflation begin to cool.

South Korea's $970 billion economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year last quarter as consumers and businesses cut spending.

South Korean households were the most pessimistic in more than three years in May. Their debt rose to a record last quarter as they borrowed to buy houses and settle credit-card bills.

The ability of households to repay debt has weakened, the central bank said last month, because their debt rose faster than their income.

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John Morse Jr., The Washington Post Co.’s chief financial officer, will retire at the end of the year.

Morse, 61, has been the Post’s top finance officer since 1989. A successor will be named soon, the company said in a statement.

"Nineteen years is an extraordinary tenure for a CFO, but in Jay’s case I wish it were longer," said Donald Graham, the company’s chief executive officer, in a statement. "I’ve often said that Jay was old-fashioned in his regard for standards before it became fashionable to be so."

During Morse’s tenure at the Post (NYSE: WPO), revenue triple to $4.2 billion in 2007 http://fcrwizard.com.

Before joining the company, Morse was a partner at Price Waterhouse. He is currently on the boards of Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. and the Northern Virginia Technology Council. He is also president of the College Foundation at the University of Virginia.

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