Finance news. My opinion.

November 10, 2008

China's $586 Billion Stimulus Boosts Stocks, Metals

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 7:02 pm

China, the biggest contributor to world growth, unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to sustain its economy, spurring gains in stocks, metals and oil.

China's cabinet pledged “fast and heavy-handed investment'' in housing and infrastructure through 2010 and a “relatively loose'' monetary policy, according to a State Council statement yesterday.

Copper jumped more than 8 percent and Asian stocks rallied on optimism the package will limit the depth of a looming global recession and encourage coordinated efforts to revive growth. President Hu Jintao will join crisis talks with world leaders this weekend in Washington, where President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to pass stimulus measures.

“This plan is, by all measures, too large to be ignored,'' said Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. China may “help the rest of the world by creating more demand for foreign goods and services.''

China's CSI 300 Index of shares closed 7.4 percent higher, the biggest increase in seven weeks. Copper gained as much as 8.4 percent in London. Crude oil, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares, and some Asian currencies also climbed.

China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth last year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. The government didn't say how much spending was previously allocated and indicated some will be private investment.

`Diplomatic Initiative'

“If the Chinese use this as a diplomatic initiative, it could be an important step toward a more coordinated response,'' Simon Johnson, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist of the IMF, said in Boston.

China's gross domestic product grew 9 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years, as export orders and industrial production waned and property slumped.

“Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,'' the State Council said in yesterday's statement. “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed,'' it said, adding that the central bank will pursue a “moderately loose'' monetary policy.

The central bank has already cut interest rates three times in two months, reducing the one-year lending rate to 6.66 percent, and Governor Zhou Xiaochuan flagged yesterday that more reductions may be on the way.

`Urgent' Action

Group of 20 nations, including China, are ready to act “urgently'' to tackle the global slump, finance ministers said after a weekend meeting in Sao Paulo Faxless pay advance.

China's extra spending may boost the nation's economic growth by 2 percentage points next year, said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. Before yesterday's announcement, UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG forecast GDP would rise no more than 7.5 percent next year, the smallest increase in nearly two decades.

“There is still a risk that an increasingly market-driven economy corrects faster than the fiscal package can be implemented,'' said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “We need to see evidence in the coming months that the fiscal package is either spurring demand or bolstering sentiment.''

China's plan is the equivalent of about 80 percent of government spending last year.

The package earmarks 100 billion yuan of central- government spending this quarter for low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, roads, railways and airports. Investment by local governments and companies may boost that to 400 billion yuan, the State Council said.

Cutting Taxes

The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies' costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan.

Grain purchase prices and subsidies for farmers will be raised, along with allowances for low-income urban households. The government also said it had scrapped loan quotas, which limited lending by banks, to help small businesses.

China's move comes as central banks around the world slash interest rates to revive their economies.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China have all lowered rates in the past two weeks. Taiwan, which counts China as its largest trading partner, cut rates late yesterday for the fourth time in two months.

Chinese manufacturing contracted by the most since at least 2004 in October and export orders dropped to their lowest, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Home sales have plunged in major cities including Beijing and the stockpile of unsold new vehicles was at a four-year high in September.

“The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.

Source

October 4, 2008

Overnight interbank dollar rates slip but stay high

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 7:35 am

Overnight money market stress eased in Europe on Thursday but lending rates remained above central bank targets, reflecting banks’ firmly entrenched aversion to counterparty risk.

Rates have remained elevated despite massive liquidity injections by central banks around the world as the ongoing crisis in the financial system has prompted banks to hoard cash and refuse to lend to each other.

The European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged as expected at 4.25 percent but some in the market expect the central bank to cut rates in the coming months to deal with economic weakness that could result from the banking crisis.

Interbank overnight dollar rates fell for a second day running in London, after a record surge earlier this week as quarter end funding pressure eased and the U.S. Senate passed a revamped $700 billion bank bailout plan.

Overnight dollar Libor rates fell more than a full point to 2.68125 percent from 3.79375 percent on Wednesday while euro overnight rates also eased.

Rates further out jumped, with benchmark three-month rates — which now cover the year-end period — fixed higher in dollars and euros.

Three-month dollar Libor rose to 5.31750 percent, their highest since January, up from 4.15000 percent on Wednesday payday loans online. The euro-zone equivalent for euros hit its highest since the launch of the single currency, at 5.31750 percent.

“The liquidity provisioning which central banks have made has effectively drawn a line under how bad things can get but not addressed underlying problems over the value of assets that are held by counterparties,” said Richard McGuire, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. 

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September 21, 2008

Central Banks May Accept Foreign-Currency Assets, Nikkei Says

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 12:56 pm

Central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin accepting assets denominated in foreign currencies as collateral to increase liquidity in the world's financial markets, the Nikkei newspaper said.

Six central banks including the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are discussing the plan, Nikkei reported today without saying where it got the information or naming the other two banks get a free credit report.

Central bankers struggled to restore confidence in markets last week as banks hoarded money on concern more financial companies will follow Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy.

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July 5, 2008

Spain, Ireland `Thrown to the Wolves

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 4:57 pm

Jose Mauricio Rodriguez Montalvo rents a room from his sister to help her afford her basement flat in Madrid as mortgage costs soar.

“She's crying over the Euribor,'' the 12-month money- market rate used to set Spanish mortgages, Montalvo, 28, said in an interview. “We're just praying it won't keep going up.''

For homeowners in Spain and in Ireland, struggling to stay afloat amid the wreckage of a decade-long real-estate boom, those prayers are going unanswered. The European Central Bank yesterday increased its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent to fight inflation, pushing both economies a step closer to recession.

The two countries are particularly vulnerable to higher lending costs because their housing industries account for about 10 percent of their economies, twice the EU average. Montalvo's family has seen its monthly mortgage payment leap 50 percent to 2,080 euros since the ECB began raising rates in December 2005.

“They have been thrown to the wolves,'' said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $46 billion in bonds at Resolution Investment Management Ltd. in Glasgow, Scotland. `It's much easier to bring inflation lower if you're willing to have a recession in economies like Spain, Italy and Ireland.''

The Irish economy contracted for the first time in more than a decade in the first quarter. Growth in Spain was the slowest in 13 years in the period, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News see a 45 percent probability of a recession, or two consecutive quarterly contractions, within the next year.

Balancing Act

The ECB has more than doubled its key rate in less than two years under its mandate to control prices. Euro-region inflation accelerated to 4 percent last month, the fastest in 16 years, on soaring food and oil costs, even with growth slowing.

Trichet yesterday signaled further rate increases weren't imminent as he strikes a balance between taming inflation and not choking economic growth. Still, while he acknowledged some countries will be harder hit than others by the rate increase, he said the bank must serve the entire euro region just as the Federal Reserve sets policy for all 50 U.S. states.

“If you concentrate on California or Florida, it is not at all like Massachusetts or Alaska,'' he said in an interview with Ireland's RTE radio. “It is the same in our case and we have to make a judgment what is good for the full body of the 320 million people'' in the euro area.

Fraction of Germany

Spain and Ireland make up less than 15 percent of the region's economy and their economies together are about half the size of Germany's. Growth in Europe's biggest economy accelerated in the first quarter to the fastest pace in 12 years and manufacturing was still expanding in June. Spanish industry contracted by the most on record.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has called on the ECB to be “flexible'' in setting monetary policy payday advance online.

The interest rate increase is “more bad news,'' said Joan Burton, finance spokeswoman for Ireland's Labour Party. “Many families are now faced with the very real prospect of negative equity, which has serious economic and social consequences.''

The Euribor has risen almost 30 basis points since June 5 when Trichet first signaled higher rates. That made new mortgages more expensive and will make existing ones costlier as 98 percent of Spanish home loans and around 80 percent in Ireland are on a variable rate. The jump in costs has sapped demand for housing.

Housing Slump

Home starts in Spain plunged 70 percent in March from a year ago and dropped around 60 percent in Ireland. The slowdown prompted Dublin-based realtor Lisney to lower salaries by 10 percent for its 170 workers. The Irish unit of CB Richard Ellis plans to cut around a 10th of its workforce.

“Transactions have dried up,'' said Guy Hollis, managing director of CBRE in Ireland. “It's not going to last forever, but we have to be prudent.''

The building boom going bust is tarnishing a decade of gains. Ireland's economy has grown the most in the euro area since monetary union in 1999, while Spain created more than a third of new jobs in the region.

After years of “inappropriately low'' interest rates, Spain and Ireland are now feeling the “hangover,'' said Alan Ahearne, a lecturer at Ireland's National University and a former economist at the Fed.

Earnings Outlook

Irish banks including Allied Irish Banks Plc had their 2008 earnings estimates cut by Merrion Stockbrokers yesterday because of expectations for deteriorating credit quality.

The decade-long expansion does leave Spain and Ireland with resources to ease the pain of the slowdown. Zapatero's government will use a budget surplus of 2.2 percent of gross domestic product to finance 18 billion euros of measures to prevent defaults and aid unemployed construction workers.

Ireland, with the second-lowest government debt in the euro area after Luxembourg, will maintain a 184 billion-euro infrastructure investment plan.

That may not be enough to buffer the hard landing. The Spanish downturn destroyed 75,000 jobs in the first quarter when the unemployment rate jumped the most in three years to almost 10 percent. Ireland's jobless rate rose to a nine-year high of 5.7 percent in June, according to figures published today.

“Central banks are paid to cause a recession now and then,'' said Fortis Investments Chief Investment Officer William De Vijlder. “Maybe it's a shock to put it like that, but that's reality.''

Source

June 29, 2008

Biz Council to fight for property tax cap

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 8:51 pm

The state's largest business lobby has created a statewide alliance advocating for a property tax cap — something state legislators could not agree on before the end of their scheduled session.

The Business Council of New York State Inc., based in Albany, is backed by a group of businesses, taxpayer groups and other associations supporting Gov. David Paterson's proposed tax cap.

Paterson wants to cap annual property tax increases at 4 percent or 120 percent of the consumer price index, whichever is lower. A supermajority of a school district's voters can choose to override the limit.

Powerful unions, including the 600,000-member New York State United Teachers in Latham, have fiercely opposed that idea and campaigned against the cap in the waning days of the legislative session, which ended June 25. Paterson has repeatedly said he is willing to call special legislative sessions later this year to try to lower future budget deficits or pass key legislation like a property tax cap.

"I want to get to a point where we start to look at substance, more than anything else," Paterson said at a June 23 press conference 500 fast cash. He said he and state leaders would continue negotiations over the summer.

The cap was the key recommendation in a preliminary report from a state tax commission, issued in early June. A final report is due by the end of the year, one reason Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver cited as a reason why he wasn't willing to take action on any tax cap proposal.

The new tax cap support group has nearly 50 members from Buffalo to Long Island. The group's Web site is: www.taxcapnow.org.



Source

June 12, 2008

BOK Holds Rate at Seven-Year High to Fight Inflation

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 7:57 am

The Bank of Korea kept interest rates at the highest level in seven years, saying the risk of faster inflation outweighs concern that economic growth is slowing.

Governor Lee Seong Tae and his colleagues left the seven-day repurchase rate at 5 percent in Seoul today, as forecast by all 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. They last adjusted the benchmark in August with a quarter-point increase.

Surging oil and food prices are driving inflation above the comfort zones of central banks globally, replacing slowing economic growth as their primary concern. Easing the rising cost of living is a priority for President Lee Myung Bak, whose popularity has plunged since his government agreed to resume U.S. beef imports that protesters claim aren't safe from disease.

“President Lee has set tackling inflation as a top priority to win back public support,'' said Lee Sang Jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities Co. in Seoul. “The central bank will have to raise rates if inflationary expectations spread.''

The yield on the five-year government bond fell 2 basis points to 5.84 percent at 12:53 p.m. in Seoul after Governor Lee spoke at a press conference, cooling speculation that the bank may increase interest rates. It earlier rose as much as 8 basis points.

Governor Lee said economic growth would probably slow gradually and inflation would accelerate and added that monetary policy depends on whether exports remain strong, domestic demand cools and inflation quickens.

`Cut or Increase'

“The rate policy is always open for a rate cut or increase as we manage it every month by looking into the economy and inflation,'' the governor said. “Inflation may return to the normal level after it's absorbed in the economy.''

The five year bond yield rose as high as 5.94 percent after the bank distributed a Korean-language statement immediately following the decision that said: “The upward risk to inflation is bigger than the downside risk to growth.''

The statement also said: “It's necessary to manage economic policy to keep inflation expectations from spreading.''

“There was no clear statement from the governor that could be taken to mean that the central bank will raise rates anytime soon,'' said Seo Chul Soo, a fixed-income strategist with Daewoo Securities Co faxless payday advance. in Seoul. “His comments were less hawkish than the market feared.''

The won traded at 1,030.35 versus the dollar from 1,030.10 late yesterday.

Oil Prices

“Difficulties are spreading in the overall economy,'' Finance Minister Kang Man Soo said today, citing the increase in oil prices. “Because the oil-price rise continues, I think difficulties could increase in coming months.''

Central banks in India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan have all boosted borrowing costs in the past month. China this week ordered lenders to set aside more reserves.

Soaring fuel and food costs drove consumer prices to a seven-year high of 4.9 percent in May, exceeding the central bank's target range for a seventh month. The bank aims to keep inflation between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent, on average, for the three years to 2009.

The drop in the won against the U.S. dollar this year is another factor that is pushing inflation higher by increasing the cost of imports.

At the same time, a weaker won is helping Asia's fourth- largest economy withstand a slowdown in the U.S. and Europe by making Samsung Electronics Co.'s mobile phones and Hyundai Motor Co.'s cars cheaper overseas.

Economic Growth

The focus of policy makers may shift back to supporting growth should oil prices fall and inflation begin to cool.

South Korea's $970 billion economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year last quarter as consumers and businesses cut spending.

South Korean households were the most pessimistic in more than three years in May. Their debt rose to a record last quarter as they borrowed to buy houses and settle credit-card bills.

The ability of households to repay debt has weakened, the central bank said last month, because their debt rose faster than their income.

Source

May 17, 2008

Washington Post finance chief to retire

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 2:40 pm

John Morse Jr., The Washington Post Co.’s chief financial officer, will retire at the end of the year.

Morse, 61, has been the Post’s top finance officer since 1989. A successor will be named soon, the company said in a statement.

"Nineteen years is an extraordinary tenure for a CFO, but in Jay’s case I wish it were longer," said Donald Graham, the company’s chief executive officer, in a statement. "I’ve often said that Jay was old-fashioned in his regard for standards before it became fashionable to be so."

During Morse’s tenure at the Post (NYSE: WPO), revenue triple to $4.2 billion in 2007 http://fcrwizard.com.

Before joining the company, Morse was a partner at Price Waterhouse. He is currently on the boards of Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. and the Northern Virginia Technology Council. He is also president of the College Foundation at the University of Virginia.


Source

April 29, 2008

Aloha shuts down cargo operation; 400 out of work; Neighbor Island freight grounded

Filed under: money — Tags: , — Professor @ 3:10 pm

Aloha Airlines abruptly shut down its cargo operation on Monday, cutting off nearly 85 percent of air shipments between Oahu and the Neighbor Islands.

Nearly 400 employees are affected by the shutdown. It's not clear whether other interisland airlines have the capacity to carry the thousands of tons of mail, newspapers, food, pharmaceuticals and perishable farm products Aloha Airlines Cargo moves between the Islands each day.

The airline also carries packages for FedEx, UPS and DHL.

The unexpected decision by Aloha to ground its cargo planes came during a hearing in federal bankruptcy court in Honolulu on the question of whether Aloha's pilots could strike the cargo operation.

Aloha lawyer Paul Singerman told PBN there was a purchase agreement pending for the cargo operation but that it hadn't been completed. He said he expected that Aloha's main lender, GMAC, wouldn't continue financing the airline no fax payday loans. That moved the court case from a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding to a Chapter 7 in which a trustee is appointed to oversee the sale of assets.

A person who answered the telephone at Aloha Airlines Cargo said she had been told the business was shut down immediately because the lender had cut off financing.

"We're not accepting any new shipments," she said.

Aloha shut down its passenger business on March 31 and planned to sell its cargo and ground-services businesses, both of which were profitable. The ground-services business was sold last week to Pacific Air Cargo but continued disputes over the status of the 300 Aloha pilots made the sale of the cargo business more problematic.


Source

March 24, 2008

Asian Central Banks Look to Invest Reserves in Region

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 9:48 am

Central banks from 16 Asian nations may invest more of their $1 trillion of foreign reserves in the region's debt as Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts reduce returns on U.S. assets.

“This is something that most of us, that are not yet investing in, will be looking at,'' Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco said in a March 23 interview in Jakarta. There can be “some kind of shift'' to Asian sovereign bonds, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal said in a separate interview on March 22, after a weekend meeting of policy makers from the region.

Asian countries pummeled by a financial crisis in 1997-98 have spent the past decade hoarding reserves to help protect their economies from external disturbances. A looming U.S. recession means the world's biggest economy may no longer be the best place for the region to invest those funds.

Indonesia's 10-year dollar-denominated bonds, for example, have a yield of 6.06 percent compared with 3.33 percent for similar maturity U.S. Treasuries. Local-currency Philippine debt maturing in 2018 yielded 7.16 percent as of March 19.

“Given the volatility in the U.S. dollar, some diversification won't hurt,'' said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore. “Even if the U.S. does slide into a recession, continued growth in places like China'' may help maintain economic expansion in the region.

U.S. Slowdown

Growth in the U.S. economy slowed to 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Half of the economists in a Bloomberg News survey this month expect a U.S faxless payday advance. recession this year. China's economy expanded 11.2 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the fourth straight quarter above 11 percent.

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro on March 17 before posting its first weekly advance against the European currency on March 21.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points since September to help avert a recession in the world's largest economy, amid its worst housing slump in 16 years.

Governors from the South East Asian Central Banks grouping, or SEACEN, include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar, South Korea, Mongolia, Fiji, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan. They manage about $1 trillion in reserves, according to Bloomberg data.

Sri Lanka's Cabraal said he is looking at “possible avenues to invest in other Asian countries.''

“It wouldn't have been on the agenda some years ago, but it is now very much on the agenda,'' Cabraal said. “You can see quite a clear shift in the mindset.''

Tetangco from the Philippines said central banks in the region will have to make decisions about investing more in Asian debt “at some point in the future.''

“We are looking at the opportunities for diversification into high-quality assets such as sovereign or quasi-sovereign securities,'' he said.

Source

March 11, 2008

Hovnanian Q1 loss reaches $131M

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Professor @ 1:09 pm

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. reported a loss of $130.9 million on Monday after markets closed, which includes land-related charges.

The just-completed quarterly loss was more than double the $57.4 million loss a year ago.

The company delivered 3,604 homes in the first quarter that ended Jan. 31, an increase from the 3,266 homes delivered in the previous quarter. But the homes sold for less, with revenue falling from $1.14 billion to $1.05 billion.

"Market conditions remain challenging across many of our markets," said Ara K. Hovnanian, president and chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises in Red Bank, N.J quick payday. "We continue to focus on reducing our inventories, maximizing cash flow and shrinking our overhead to ensure that we properly manage the difficult market conditions we currently face."

Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) builds in Sacramento under the name K. Hovnanian Homes, and was ranked seven in the Greater Sacramento market last year, based on new-home sales, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

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