Home Prices in Major U.S. Cities Probably Fell on Foreclosures
Home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas probably fell in April at about the same pace as in prior months as foreclosures climbed, economists said ahead of a report today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 18.6 percent from a year earlier following an 18.7 percent drop in March, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Another report may show consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in June.
The highest jobless rate in 25 years is contributing to record foreclosures, which are likely to depress values for months to come even as home sales steady. The loss of wealth associated with the decline in property prices is one reason Americans are saving more, leading to a slowdown in spending that will restrain an economic recovery.
“The market will likely remain out of balance for some time given the flood of foreclosures,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession.”
The S&P/Case-Shiller gauge is due at 9 a.m. New York time. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from drops of 17.7 percent to 19.4 percent. The index dropped 19 percent in the year ended in January, the most since records began in 2001.
Gaining Confidence
At 10 a.m., a report from the New York-based Conference Board may show its index of consumer confidence rose to 55.3, the highest since September, from 54.9 in May, according to the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 60 to 51.5. The measure set a record low in February.
The home-price index figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.
Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices as well as property seizures, climbed 18 percent in May from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. The number topped 300,000 for the third consecutive month, with an estimated one in every 398 homes in some stage of foreclosure fast cash savings account.
The drop in prices caused by the seizures is helping stabilize home sales. Home resales climbed 2.4 percent in May to an annual pace of 4.77 million as the median sales prices slumped 17 percent, the third-largest decrease on record, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Distressed Areas
About 73 percent of all existing houses and condos sold in the Las Vegas-Paradise area were foreclosures last month, up from 56 percent a year earlier, according to figures from San Diego-based MDA DataQuick. Such sales accounted for 51 percent of all existing-home transactions in California, up from 40 percent a year ago, the research company said last week.
Declines in home values and stock prices destroyed a record $13.9 trillion in household wealth since late 2007, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.
The need to repair the damage will cause consumers to remain frugal, signaling the biggest part of the economy will be slow to recover. The savings rate climbed to a 15-year high of 6.9 percent last month, after reaching zero as recently as April of last year.
While the rise in foreclosures is likely to keep hurting prices, some companies are seeing signs demand is stabilizing.
More Sales
Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, said last week that home deliveries and new orders rose 47 percent and 67 percent, respectively, in the second quarter from the previous three months. Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said the housing market “experienced an uptick in sales” in the quarter while not yet recovering from the slump.
“While we are sensing pent-up demand in the market, rising unemployment, increased foreclosures and tighter credit standards continue to present challenges for the industry,” Miller said in a June 25 statement. “This combined with a recent spike in mortgage rates has made it difficult to predict when the market will ultimately turn the corner.”